What impact does U.S. CPI have on $BTC?

$BTC is the high-beta risk asset most sensitive to global liquidity. Through the chain “Federal Reserve policy expectations → USD/US Treasuries → market liquidity → $BTC price,” CPI directly determines the near-term trend:
Core formula: CPI comes in above expectations (inflation rebounds) → The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates / delays rate cuts → The U.S. dollar strengthens and U.S. Treasury yields rise → Risk-asset liquidity tightens → $BTC bears pressure and falls
Inverse formula: CPI is below expectations (inflation cools) → Rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve heat up → The U.S. dollar weakens and U.S. Treasury yields fall → Risk-asset liquidity loosens → $BTC rises

Short term (1–4 hours after the data is released):
$BTC is likely to spike and then pull back / drop sharply south: the market has already price in the negative news in advance. After the data lands, it triggers “buy the expectation, sell the fact,” combined with derivatives liquidations, which may lead to a rapid plunge

Support levels: $68k–$70k (the lower boundary of the prior consolidation platform). If it breaks, then look toward $65k–$66k
Resistance levels: $72k–$73k (the prior rebound high). If the data is above expectations, it will be difficult to break through
Risk points: If a “waterfall-style decline” occurs after the data is released, it may trigger a chain of liquidations and worsen the drawdown

Summary
This CPI data is the key macro turning point for crypto in 2026:
If the data meets/exceeds expectations, $BTC will face near-term pressure and significant medium-term downside risk. The September rate-cut expectation is the only support right now. Once that expectation is dashed, a deep correction will follow
If the data is below expectations, it can only bring a stage-by-stage rebound and cannot change the overall trend of inflation moving higher. The rebound height is limited $BTC