Houthi armed forces issue a new threat—the Red Sea may become the second front

With Israel’s ongoing airstrikes on Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi forces are issuing fresh war warnings. On April 9, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi said that Israel’s continued aggression against Lebanon could lead to a full-scale restart of the conflict, adding that it has “completely and finally prevented Israel and the United States from using the Red Sea for hostile military purposes.” If this threat becomes reality, the Middle East will face a dual energy blockade from the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb.

1. Houthi armed forces: The Red Sea has become a “no-go zone”

The Houthis claim that they have completely blocked Israel and the United States from carrying out military activities in the Red Sea. This statement is not just intimidation. Since the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict in 2023, the Houthis have used missiles and drones to attack more than 40 merchant ships, including some vessels related to the U.S. and Israel. In recent clashes, the Houthis have repeatedly launched anti-ship ballistic missiles into the Red Sea, and they have coordinated joint strikes against Israel with Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

2. Linked to US-Iran negotiations: Lebanon becomes the trigger

The Houthis’ latest statement is directly tied to the situation in Lebanon. The Houthis clearly state that Israel’s continued invasion of Lebanon could lead to a full-scale restart of the conflict. This means the Houthis are tying their military operations in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb to the fate of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

This linkage further complicates the situation in the Middle East. If US-Iran Islamic negotiations in Islamabad break down, or if Israel’s military actions in Lebanon continue to escalate, the Houthis may step up their attacks on ships in the direction of the Red Sea, and even completely blockade the Strait of Mandeb. Once the Strait of Mandeb is blocked—combined with the Strait of Hormuz still under strict control—global energy supply chains will face dual pressure from both ends.

3. Aviation security is also under threat

Security experts warn that the Houthis’ new round of attacks poses significant risks to aviation safety over Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s airspace. The Houthis have previously used missiles and drones to attack airports and oil facilities within Saudi territory, and aviation safety risks are rising. If the Strait of Mandeb is fully blocked, not only will maritime transport be hindered, but air routes in the region will also be severely affected.

4. From a side battlefield to a direct threat

The Houthis have long been viewed as Iran’s “proxy” in the Arabian Peninsula. With the outbreak of a direct US-Iran conflict, the Houthis’ role is changing—they are no longer just a disruptive force on the sidelines, but an important military power capable of directly threatening international shipping in the Red Sea and influencing global energy supplies.

Analysts say that with Iran’s support, the Houthis’ missile stockpiles and drone production capabilities have been significantly strengthened. Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi’s tough statement on April 9 is precisely based on this strengthened capability.

5. Chain reactions in the Red Sea situation

The Red Sea route accounts for about 12% of global trade transport volume. If the Houthis intensify attacks on ships or blockade the Strait of Mandeb, global shipping costs will rise further, and trade corridors between Europe and Asia will face serious disruption.

At present, some shipping companies have chosen to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea security risks, increasing voyage times by about 15 to 20 days and multiplying insurance costs by several times compared with normal. If the situation worsens further, rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope will shift from a “contingency option” to a “single and only choice,” and the global supply chain will face greater pressure.

With the Strait of Hormuz still under strict Iranian control, the Strait of Mandeb in the direction of the Red Sea is also facing the threat of a “comprehensive blockade” by the Houthis. By linking the war in Lebanon to Red Sea security, the Houthis mean that the Middle East’s energy throat is shifting from “one gate that must be held” to “a dual blockade.” Whether the Washington talks on April 14 succeed or fail will directly determine whether the Red Sea situation will further escalate.
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