April 13, 2026 Market Analysis - Bitcoin, Gold, Forex

The strategy has been updated, please pay attention. Currently, TACO is relatively active, news is quite intense, please control costs.

There's nothing much to say today; the market is leaning towards a dollar bullish trend.

My expectation for Trump is a ceasefire at the moment, but not a complete halt in fighting. Gold and Bitcoin are still under oil-related suppression, with the US dollar and crude oil remaining the main drivers. The US definitely does not want to lose control of the petrodollar.

Considering the US dollar interest rates and inflation caused by crude oil, there will be no rate cuts in the short term. To preserve the dollar, this also suppresses gold. At least until a ceasefire is reached, gold won't rise. The medium-term protection for the dollar will suppress commodities, so overall, the outlook is bearish on non-USD assets.

Ceasefire, no rate cut, crude oil stable, gold falls, dollar rises
Ceasefire, no war, crude oil fluctuates widely, gold is bearish, dollar is bullish
Ceasefire, war ends, crude oil falls, gold rises, non-USD assets rise, dollar is long-term bearish
Rate cut, crude oil stable, gold rises, dollar falls

So, looking at the above summary, the US is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, as it would cause trouble for itself!
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