Is the "false rebound" after the plunge still a trend reversal? The key watershed for BTC has already appeared!

Current Price: 71,173

From the overall structure, BTC experienced a highly destructive volume-driven long bearish candle on April 12, directly breaking the short-term upward structure, and market sentiment shifted from strong to weak. The core focus today (April 13) is to determine whether this rebound is a “restorative retracement” or the starting point of a new rally.

Below is a breakdown from three cycles:

1. Daily Level: The trend is not bad, but entering a correction phase

The daily structure still belongs to a high-level oscillation zone, but a few points need attention:

• The previous high around 73,790 forms a clear double-top pattern
• The long bearish candle yesterday engulfs the gains of the previous two days, a typical “bearish-dominated candlestick”
• The current price retraces to around 71,000, which is the lower boundary of the previous consolidation center

Key conclusions:

• The daily trend has not completely turned bad (not breaking below the major upward trend line)
• But it has shifted from an “uptrend” to a “high-level correction phase”

Key support: 70,000 / 68,000
Key resistance: 72,500 / 73,500

2. Four-hour Level: Bearish trend has formed, rebound is weak

The four-hour is the most critical cycle right now:

• High points gradually decreasing (73,790 → 73,000 → 72,000)
• Low points continuously moving lower (forming a standard descending structure)
• After the plunge, the rebound lacks volume, a typical “weak correction”

Particularly note:

• The current rebound is always suppressed around 71,500
• Structurally, it’s more likely a “downtrend continuation”

Technical judgment:

👉 The four-hour level has confirmed entry into a bearish trend
👉 Any rebound that cannot stabilize above 72,000 is a shorting opportunity

3. One-hour Level: Oscillating rebound, main force testing

More detailed one-hour trend:

• Last night’s low reached 70,500, then quickly pulled back
• Short-term rebound appeared, but with obvious weakness
• Formed a small sideways consolidation zone (70,800–71,500)

What does this indicate?

👉 The main force has not strongly absorbed the sell-off
👉 More likely “sideways digestion + trap for longs”

If the one-hour drops below 70,800 again:

➡️ Very likely a second bottom test or even a break below 70,000

Overall judgment (core logic):

The current market is in:

👉 Daily correction phase
👉 Four-hour bearish trend
👉 One-hour weak rebound

So the conclusion is very clear:

Short-term biased bearish, medium-term oscillation, the major trend not fully broken

Operational suggestions (key points):

1. Short-selling strategy (main idea)

• Short in batches within the 71,500–72,000 zone
• Stop-loss: above 72,500
• Targets: 70,500 → 70,000 → 69,000

2. Long-position strategy (cautious)

Only consider two scenarios:

• Strong breakout and stabilization above 72,000 (confirming strength)
• Or a pullback to 68,000–69,000 with volume-supported rebound

Otherwise:

👉 Not recommended to bottom fish
👉 Currently not a safe zone for long entries

3. Risk control reminder

• Volatility is increasing; control your position sizes
• Avoid chasing highs or panic selling in the middle of the move
• Prioritize “rebound shorts” rather than guessing bottoms