BTC Evening Outlook:

The Bitcoin hourly chart is preparing to break out of the triangle. Only after breaking through the triangle and stabilizing above the 74,929 resistance can we look upward toward the red arrow's indicated spike high near 75,500. As long as Bitcoin remains above 74,929, it will continue to rebound. However, as long as the rebound does not break through the resistance at 76,237, the current upward movement is only a rebound. Only a break above 76,237 would be a true upward trend, allowing a continued challenge toward 77,573 and the previous high at 78,283. Don't assume that an upward move is a reversal, nor that a downward move means a crash—that's incorrect. Looking at the white arrow's position around 73,537, it’s clear that this level has been tested four times and held. The yellow arrow points to a rise to 78,283 supported by the rebound from 73,537. If the price revisits 73,537 and finds support again, from a "boat seeking a sword" perspective, this rebound has a high probability of testing 78,283 again. If it breaks 78,283, the upward trend will continue. If a stall occurs near 78,283 during the rebound, the price may return to test the 73,537 support again. But for a move toward 78,283, a break above the 76,237 resistance is necessary to trigger the upward trend.

Bitcoin with volume breaks above 75,263, look for long entries on the right side; a volume breakdown below 74,589 and a failed rebound indicate a short entry on the right side—set a proper stop-loss.

On the hourly chart, a break and stabilization above 75,263 targets 76,260–77,412; if it cannot surpass 75,263, it’s useless.

On the 4-hour chart, a breakdown below 74,483 targets 73,677–72,019.

Although the 4-hour chart has broken below the Fibonacci 78.6% strong support, it is held by the 61.8% support and the yellow bullish trend line indicated by the red arrow. Under dual support, it’s difficult to break below the 61.8% level. Unless there is negative news, this level is unlikely to be easily broken. For the 4-hour chart to decline further, it must break below 61.8% and then look toward the 50% and 38.2% levels. If the 4-hour rebound stabilizes at the 78.6% level, the upward movement will continue. A new high above the previous high will come; watch for volume changes. Do not operate recklessly—strictly follow Sister Lin’s strategy for positioning.