Determining that Bitcoin is still in a bear market and not recognizing that a new bull run has already started; the short-term rebound is just a counter-trend bounce, not a trend reversal.

- This round of rebound precisely approaches the 21-week EMA, with a slight resistance and pullback;
- Core resistances: bear market resistance zone, 200-day moving average, 200-week moving average;
- Even if there is a breakthrough in resistance in the short term, it is unlikely to lead to a sustained long-term bull run or hit new all-time highs.

- Key reference: mid-term election year patterns: February, April, June are traditionally weak windows;
- Distinguish between two types of bottom structures:
- Lower lows in April: subsequent rebound cycle is longer (2014);
- Higher lows in April: short-lived rebound, peak at the end of April, weakness in May (2018, similar to now);
- Not optimistic about forcibly replicating the 2019 bull market, believing that current volatility does not have enough time to digest.

Keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England decisions on April 29;
Markets tend to remain relatively strong before major macro events, but tend to weaken again after the events are confirmed.

- In mid-term years, Bitcoin tends to underperform compared to gold, energy, industrial metals, and manufacturing sectors;
- Don’t focus only on the crypto space; diversify across categories to avoid the emotional toll of bear market rebounds and to achieve higher returns;
- Acknowledge that sector-specific bull markets always exist; don’t blindly bet on a single track.

- Short-term: can still weaken and rebound for 1–2 weeks, oscillating and testing resistance;
- Mid-term (within the year): overall focus shifts downward, likely retesting lows again;
- Long-term direction: only in the second half of this year will the price break out of the range and choose a final breakout direction. #Gate13週年現場直擊