Be Forest is buying time for Trump; short-term oil-price easing may be possible

┈➤ Extension of sanctions waivers
U.S. Treasury Secretary Beisente has just announced that the sanctions waiver on Iran’s seaborne oil has been extended by 30 days. On April 19, the waiver for Russia was already extended by 30 days.
First, a clarification:
First, it is not lifting financial sanctions; it is lifting sanctions on offshore oil—meaning oil that is being transported in transit.
Second, the so-called financial sanctions do not prevent Iran and Russia from selling crude oil; rather, they are blocking the buyer-side process. Sanctions waivers allow importing countries to purchase this in-transit oil, even if it has already been transported and arrived at the importing country’s port.
Third, it is unclear whether Iran and Russia can obtain revenue settlement, or whether—like Iran’s other overseas assets—those funds are directly frozen.
While extending the waivers, Beisente also specifically emphasized that the claim that Iran can gain $14 billion in revenue due to sanctions relief is pure nonsense. This can be considered as helping Trump respond to the Democratic Party’s doubts on the other side.
┈➤ Psychological “massage” and expectation management
On the other hand, Beisente said that lifting the sanctions “can release more than 250 million barrels of waterborne (seaborne) oil.”
In fact, it may not be that much, because it had previously been extended by 30 days, and some of the crude oil may have already been completed in trading.
But regardless, the figure of 250 million barrels may ease the anxiety of demand-side players. If crude-oil importing countries expect oil prices to fall, their buying behavior will slow down, which will further help ease oil prices.
┈➤ How big is the global oil supply gap?
I looked into it with Gemini and GPT. Before the war, in the Middle East, crude oil output was about 31 million barrels per day, and exports were about 21.5 to 22 million barrels.
Oman’s production is 1 to 1.1 million barrels, because Oman’s exports do not rely on the Strait.
As the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, some oil pipelines are being repurposed.
First, Saudi Arabia’s “east-west pipeline”: export volumes can reach 7 million barrels of crude oil per day ( currently pumping and pressurizing, aiming for 8.5 million barrels ) ;
Second, the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline: output can reach 1.8 million barrels per day ( currently rerouting the pipeline flow ) ;
Third, the Iran–Turkey pipeline: your export volume can reach 250,000 barrels per day ( currently launching the Iraq–Jordan new project ) .
This would allow about 9.05 million barrels of crude oil to be exported.
In addition, some crude oil is transported by land to other regions—for example, Pakistan—disguised as that region’s crude oil, and then shipped out.
Apart from the Middle East, after Baduoluo was taken away, Venezuela increased crude-oil production. In 2025, its output was about 900,000 barrels per day; after January, the average was about 1.2 million barrels of crude oil per day. ( From January to April, Venezuela’s crude-oil extraction has been under reconstruction, so during the period when the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Venezuela’s production may be even higher ) .
Overall, the global crude-oil supply gap is about 10 million barrels per day.
┈➤ Impact on oil prices in Asia, Europe, and the Americas
╰✦ Asia
Only the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline is relatively convenient for shipping oil to Asia, but the quantity is limited. Oil prices in Asia are still not very optimistic. Most of the in-transit crude oil under this sanctions waiver is Russia and Iran shipping to Asia, so Asian oil prices may have eased a little in recent days.
Before the Strait blockade in early 2026, oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz to Asia was about 17 to 18 million barrels per day. Considering that some of these 250 million barrels of crude oil are sent to other continents, and that some were already traded during the previous waiver period, these 250 million barrels could support roughly two weeks.
But after these few days, Asian oil prices may still not be very optimistic.
╰✦ Europe
Of the three Middle East oil supply pipelines, two are mainly oriented toward Europe. Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline can only transport northward to the Mediterranean ( Suez Canal tolls are not cheap ) because the south—here in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—is one of Iran’s proxies, the Houthis. Iraq–Turkey shipments basically also go out to sea toward Europe, so Europe’s crude-oil supply may see some continuing improvement.
╰✦ Americas
These 250 million barrels of crude oil are mainly exported to Asia. Asian buyers’ scramble to buy crude oil in the Americas will cool down in the short term, which has a small positive effect on easing Americas oil prices. Pipelines shipping to Europe help ease Europe’s demand for oil from the Americas. So the short-term impact on the Americas is small; another part of the ongoing pressure is relieved by pipeline exports of crude oil.
Before the Strait is opened, U.S. oil prices are estimated to rely mainly on Venezuela’s increased output. The information that Bee Brother found in a media article is: U.S. Energy Secretary said that since January 3, Venezuela has sold about 150 million barrels of oil. He said the company’s daily production exceeds 1.2 million barrels, and it has stored about 50 million barrels of crude oil, “they can’t get into the market.” That suggests that Trump’s first handling of relations with Venezuela was right. Venezuela also has the potential to increase production and is a positive factor for easing U.S. oil prices in the very short term.
It’s just that currently, U.S. oil companies don’t have a strong desire to make additional technical investments in Venezuela. If, going forward, U.S. oil companies do add technical investments in Venezuela, then Venezuela’s crude-oil output could increase substantially, which would likely be beneficial for suppressing inflation in the U.S. The better inflation is controlled, the sooner the dollar will loosen—this is what the U.S. stock market, especially the crypto market, is hoping for.
┈➤ Written at the end
Actually, if the Strait is not opened for a relatively long time. Bee Brother calculated that, compared with before February, the current supply-demand gap in crude oil is about a little more than 10 million barrels per day; before February, daily crude-oil production was more than 100 million barrels, so supply is down by about 10%. Even if crude-oil demand curves are relatively steep, oil prices cannot rise infinitely. Under the new supply-demand relationship, oil prices may find a new equilibrium range.
The problem is that a certain level of panic has emerged, leading to rush buying and price-hiking behavior. In Beisente’s view, first, this is to respond to the Democratic Party’s doubts; second, it is to try to buy time for Trump and Iran to negotiate; third, it is to ease oil-price anxiety.
It’s just that in recent days, the easing effect of those 250 million barrels of in-transit oil can only be a little bit. For oil prices to truly fall, the U.S. and Iran need to complete an agreement and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The question is: during the time Beisente is buying for Trump, will both sides be able to reach an agreement?!