April 23 Morning Market Outlook

1. Geopolitical risk aversion cools but has not disappeared
Signals from US-Iran negotiations are released, and the expectation of full-scale conflict has decreased, becoming one of the main reasons for yesterday's sharp drop in gold prices; but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains tense, oil prices stay high, energy inflation and geopolitical residual warmth continue to support gold prices, with short-term bearish bias and medium-term still supported by bullish factors.
2. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have significantly cooled down
US March retail sales exceeded expectations greatly, market expectations for rate cuts sharply declined, and the timing of the first rate cut has been delayed. The dollar and US bond yields strengthened, increasing the cost of holding gold. Coupled with ETF continuous reduction, medium-term pressure from a strong dollar and high yields remains.
3. Central bank gold purchases provide long-term support unchanged
Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for consecutive years, with China, Turkey, and others continuously increasing holdings, forming a long-term ballast for gold prices and limiting significant downward space.
Technical analysis
Daily chart shows high-level oscillation and decline, after oversold conditions entered a recovery and consolidation phase, moving averages are converging, and bulls and bears are deadlocked with no clear trend.
4-hour rebound momentum has slowed, Bollinger bands are tightening with oscillation, last night’s dip to 4725 released bearish momentum, support at around 4720 repeatedly held, short-term decline slowed, rebound is weak, in a low-level recovery stage, focus on the breakout direction of the range.
Resistance: 4770-4800-4835
Support: 4720-4700-4665
Trading ideas (range-bound oscillation)
Buy near 4710-4720 Stop loss 4690
Target 4760-4780
Sell near 4770 Stop loss 4785 Target 4700
Investing involves risks, trade cautiously $XAUUSD