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BTC = a rising-floor option
• Spot: $78K
• Structural floor: $60K → 23% downside
• Floor reaches $78K in ~10 months
The key shift: the floor isn’t static—it climbs.
• Y1: $82.7K
• Y2: $111.9K
• Y3: $149.3K
• Y5: $255.1K
So the downside shrinks with time while upside stays open.
At $78K, your risk is $18K today—but if price stagnates and the model holds, that risk fades as the floor rises.
Time isn’t neutral—it compresses downside.