$BTC at $77,690—are you planning to buy the dip?

Bitcoin fell 38% from the $126k level, dropping to the point where you start doubting life. Wall Street institutions are rushing in, a U.S. military general admits the military is running node operations, and MicroStrategy snapped up another 810k coins—yet what about the price? It’s still clinging around 78K, like a boxer who’s taken 38 punches: standing there, but your legs are shaking.

First, look at the surface: down 38%, but not fully out of the woods

From the October 2025 all-time high of $126k, Bitcoin has already evaporated nearly 40%. With a market cap of $1.55 trillion, $35.7 billion in 24-hour trading volume, and price volatility of 0.3%, it’s barely moved. This kind of “no movement” is more terrifying than a steep plunge.

First thing: institutions are buying the dip, but you’re panicking.

Citi launched Bitcoin custody, Morgan Stanley wants to pivot into a crypto bank, and Goldman Sachs has applied for an ETF. BlackRock’s IBIT has been pulling in strong weekly inflows, with cumulative ETF inflows exceeding $2 billion.

Second thing: supply is already drying up.

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have fallen to the lowest level since 2018—less than 2.7 million coins. Long-term holders hold 75% of the circulating supply, and they’re not selling. MicroStrategy alone holds 815k coins and is still buying. Short-term holders sold 290k coins, but the net absorption—by long-term holders + ETFs + enterprise treasuries—came to 370k coins.

Third thing: macro is bad, but BTC is no longer the same BTC as back then.

The Federal Reserve isn’t cutting rates. Inflation is sticking at 3% and won’t drop. GDP growth has slowed to 0.5%, and the economy is starting to lose momentum. Put this kind of macro environment three years ago—Bitcoin would have already broken below $50k.

But now? It’s holding at 78K.

On one side: institutions are aggressively sweeping, supply is drying up, and sovereign-level recognition is coming in.

On the other side: macro is in shambles, sentiment is at an all-time low, and the price is down 38%.

The key level is 75,000—that’s the final line for this bull market.

If it holds, a break above 78K means acceleration, with targets of 80K → 83K.

If it doesn’t hold, it will drop to 73K and even 70K to finish the last round of slaughter, and then the true second phase of the bull market begins.

If you’re a short-term trader: a breakout with volume above 78K is chaseable. Target 80K–83K, with a stop-loss at 77K. Or buy in batches in the 75.5K–76K range, with a stop-loss at 74.5K.

If you’re a long-term player: take a heavy position in the 73K–75K range—this is the strongest support zone of this bull cycle. Target 90K to take some profits first; hold the rest into year-end for 120K+.

In this round, it’s not the people who are bearish who are losing money—it’s those who chased higher at 120K and cut at 70K.

Bitcoin is still that same Bitcoin; what’s changed is your nerve. #加密市场行情震荡 $BTC