#美伊谈判陷入僵局

Are peace talks just a pause in the conflict? Oil prices may stay elevated

US-Iran peace talks seem to have suddenly “stalled.” After Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire agreement, it appears both sides have entered a phase of tug-of-war—issuing frequent and tough statements, yet without taking decisive steps that could trigger a qualitative change. The latest update is that Trump said he “does not want to act hastily” toward Iran, but he still keeps military options on the table. Iran continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and has increased the density of naval mine deployments. Tonight, reports say Iran’s foreign minister may lead a delegation to arrive in Islamabad on the 24th to attend negotiations. Everyone can watch this closely.

At present, it is important to closely monitor US-Iran developments over the weekend, as they may ultimately determine whether the ceasefire agreement will break down. The Little Wealth God believes the probability that both sides will reach an agreement is relatively low, and the ceasefire agreement is likely to collapse. After all, their core demands are far apart. Iran’s three major conditions—advancing nuclear capabilities, removing sanctions, and war reparations—are difficult for the US to accept. As for the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of blockade is extremely high. Iran views control of the strait as a core strategic bargaining chip. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has the capability to deploy speedboats, anti-ship missiles, and naval mines, which is enough to carry out a partial blockade. Currently, Iran has threatened high-intensity retaliatory measures against energy facilities and shipping routes, citing “reciprocal response.” If the US military or Israel launches a new round of strikes, Iran is highly likely to restart a full blockade, cutting off roughly 20% of global oil transportation routes.

If the situation spirals out of control, oil prices will surge explosively, and financial markets will face severe turbulence:

Localized clashes continue (current situation): Brent crude stays at 95–110 per barrel, energy stocks strengthen, Asian importing countries face pressure, and the US dollar rises on safe-haven demand.

Partial blockade of the strait: Oil prices could jump to 120–140 per barrel; European natural gas prices may surge in tandem; global inflation pressure could return; and major central banks might delay rate cuts.

Direct war between the US and Iran: Oil prices break above $180 per barrel; the risk of global economic recession rises sharply; stock markets fall across the board; and safe-haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries rise significantly.

Historical evidence: In March 2026, due to shipping tensions, Brent crude’s month-on-month gain exceeded 60%; after the April 10 blockade news, oil prices jumped more than 40% within the day.

Impact path on the crypto market:

Short term: Risk assets get sold off → BTC, ETH may retrace 5–10%.

Medium term: High oil prices raise inflation expectations → the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high → DeFi tokens and growth-focused projects face pressure.

Long term: Geopolitical turmoil intensifies → demand increases for stablecoins, cross-chain protocols, and privacy networks.

What do you think about US-Iran peace talks? Will both sides sit down to negotiate this weekend, or even reach an agreement? Leave a comment and let’s chat!