When looking at today’s market, one thing became clear to me—Bitcoin has broken above $74,000, the highest level since the start of the war. That means short positions are breaking down now. In just 8 days, it has risen by more than 12%. What’s driving this? Simply put—PPI data came in far better than expected, meaning inflationary pressure is actually limited to the energy sector and not spreading to the rest of the economy. This suggests that the odds of rate cuts are increasing. Liquidity is returning, and risk assets are strengthening.

Look at the NASDAQ—green for 10 straight days; this is the longest streak since 2021. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is moving toward new records. Just three weeks after the lows of the March war, there’s been a 10% recovery. Gold has reached $4,800. Oil prices have fallen by 8%, and WTI is back below 100. Expectations for a second round of talks are fueling this.

But there’s one thing here—the market is still standing on weak fundamentals. Citadel’s Griffin says that if the channel remains closed, a global recession is certain. Goldman says that six advanced economies will still raise interest rates. McQuarrie says that resolving such a large dispute quickly is historically difficult. So Bitcoin is now at $77,560, but whether it will stay stable will depend on after April 22—when the ceasefire ends. If the conversations move forward, $80,000 is possible; otherwise, it could fall back toward $65,000.