#加密市场行情震荡 Bitcoin Market Outlook: Exhausted Momentum, What's Next?

Currently, in the global macro environment, the geopolitical game between the US and Iran has become the core variable. Negotiations between both sides have fallen into a deadlock, bringing many uncertainties to the capital markets.

Geopolitical tensions stir ripples in the capital
The US stance is firm, with Trump claiming in an interview that the US holds an absolute advantage in negotiations, demanding Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz, with obvious pressure tactics. The second round of talks, originally led by US Vice President Vance to Islamabad, was postponed after Iran refused to participate.
The US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement due on April 22 also faces uncertainties; the US unilaterally extended the ceasefire, but core disagreements remain unresolved, and tensions in the Middle East persist.
As a result, international oil prices continue to strengthen, with Brent crude rising to $106.01 per barrel, nearly a 59% year-on-year increase, further intensifying global inflation pressures. Asset class volatility has increased, and risk assets are also affected by complex factors.

Bitcoin rebound: Overheated hype with many hidden dangers
In this round of Bitcoin rebound, short positions have been largely cleared, releasing short-term selling pressure, but the upward logic has obvious shortcomings. Data shows that this price increase is not supported by spot market buy-in, but rather by a concentrated short squeeze of nearly $1.19 billion in the futures market.
This over-reliance on derivatives-driven gains is unstable and prone to sentiment retreat and trend reversals. Currently, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at the $80,000 mark, with upward momentum gradually depleting, and the bulls and bears are approaching equilibrium.

Multiple negative factors converge, the rebound may be near its end
From a weekly chart perspective, the current wave 4 rebound is nearing its end, with declining volume and weakening upward momentum, indicating signs of a mid-term top. After the US-Iran situation fluctuates and market optimism is released, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will test the $80,000 level and then pull back.
Without new spot funds entering or the price stabilizing above $80,000, the weekly rebound is likely to end, and the market will return to a correction cycle. Currently, short positions around $78,000 have been taken profit and exited; it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance, patiently awaiting new opportunities, and paying attention to subsequent momentum signals.
This article does not constitute any investment advice.