$78,800！

Bitcoin has reached this week's high, are you now experiencing "FOMO anxiety," or are you waiting to short?

Don't rush into FOMO; right now is actually the most difficult tail-end market.
Take 3 minutes to break down the underlying logic, and after reading, you'll know how to operate tomorrow.

1. Surface positive news: ETFs are buying, isn't this a sign of a bull market?
April's data looks good: daily inflows into stock ETFs hit a new high of 7.5 billion, BlackRock (IBIT) has accumulated over 63 billion in subscriptions, and 79% of institutions plan to allocate to cryptocurrencies.
Doesn't it sound like a flood of capital heading straight for 100k?
"Smart money" is entering—theoretically correct. But are institutions here to lift you up, or to scoop the bottom?

2. Real chart (and it’s deceiving you): price is rising, but volume is disappearing.
Look at Gate.io's real-time candlestick chart: the price is indeed fluctuating above 78k, but on the 4-hour level, "price rising, volume shrinking."
This is a dangerous signal.
It means—retail investors are chasing the high, while institutions haven't accumulated chips at this level.

3. The biggest trap: macro decoupling (market is pricing in a "recession")
Why is the price rising, but open interest (OI) is decreasing?
Because smart money is fleeing the top.

· Reality 1: This week’s FOMC decision, 99% of the market has priced in no rate hike. Good news is all out, but bad news is looming; Powell’s "last dance" dares not loosen.
· Reality 2: The core deadlock in US-Iran negotiations remains unresolved. Oil prices stay high, stagflation clouds gather.

The conclusion is straightforward:
This rise isn’t the arrival of a bull.
It’s the "wolf coming" before the main players push up to dump.

4. The bottom line—where is the dividing line between bulls and bears?

· Bottom line (bulls’ lifeline): $73,700
This is the MVRV valuation support level. As long as this level holds, the long-term trend is not bearish.
· Key resistance (bears’ battleground): $80k - $82,000
This is a major psychological barrier for retail investors. Without massive capital support, it’s hard to break through in one go.

Specific trading strategy (practical tips, screenshot please):

Current direction: sell high, buy low, expect sideways volatility

1. Short-selling strategy (relatively certain)
· Entry: place orders around $79,500 - $80,000.
· Stop-loss: set at $81,200 (must exit if broken here).
· Position size: 2-3% light position. No need for big bets in this tail-end market.
2. Long/bottom-fishing strategy (low cost-performance, control yourself)
· Entry: only if price drops back to $75,000 - $75,500.
· Stop-loss: $74,800. If it doesn’t reach this level, better to miss the trade than chase high.
3. Position management (most important)
· Before tonight’s to tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, keep cash below 50%.
· Now is not the time to go all-in and sleep peacefully. Short-term target is 80k, but one spike can wipe out your stop-loss.

Finally, I ask you:
I’m very conflicted about the current price—afraid that if I get in, it’s the top, but if I don’t, it’s taking off.
Leave your thoughts in the comments and let me see how many of you are as restless as I am tonight! 👇

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