$BTC BTC still remains in a high-level narrow range consolidation, after yesterday evening's rally and push higher, it encountered strong resistance near 79,700 and pulled back, indicating that short-term bulls and bears are entering an extreme game zone.

Within the day, the support level on the 1-hour chart is around 77,500. If it breaks below this level and cannot quickly recover, it will signal a breakdown of the current short-term rebound structure, most likely initiating a trend of decline and retesting the major trend support; the short-term intraday resistance is first seen around 78,000. The core resistance during this rebound is near 79,700. Only if it stabilizes above this level can the upward space be opened. The upper limit target is around 81,500. Do not blindly chase longs before breaking through.

This round of continuous multi-day staged rally is essentially just a rebound within the weekly downtrend, not the start of a new bull market. The core contradiction in the market is very clear: this rally lacks solid spot bottom accumulation, and does not have the structural foundation to form a medium- to long-term bottom. The probability of 60,000 becoming a bear bottom is very low. In the future, at least one secondary retest and bottoming process will be completed. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD indicator has shown a bullish crossover signal, indicating a medium-term bottoming cycle is clear. The true medium- to long-term bottom of this cycle is most likely to be formed before September this year. Currently, it is still a rebound trading cycle, not a reversal holding cycle.

At the same time, from the contract position data, it can be seen that after the rally, the number of short positions has sharply decreased [the weighted funding rate for positions is slightly less negative], which can be viewed as a short-term top signal for the rebound [around 80,000 to 82,000].