I predicted the BTC price on Polymarket three times in a row—my method is public

Starting in 2025, I developed a habit: whenever Gate Plaza launches a Polymarket price prediction event, I take out 100 USDT and split it into 5 parts to place bets on 5 different target price levels.

So far, I’ve won three times in a row, with a win rate over 60%. The method isn’t complicated, and I’m sharing it for free today.

My breakdown approach:

First step: look at the funding rate. If the funding rate across the whole market is still within the normal range (below 0.01%), it means the bulls haven’t gotten overheated, and there’s still room for upside. If the funding rate suddenly spikes to 0.1% or above, you need to be careful—crowded long positions are often the best fuel… it’s just in the reverse direction.

Second step: look at on-chain data. After Bitcoin broke through $79,000, did large transfers on-chain increase at the same time? If yes, it indicates institutions are entering—not retail sentiment.

Third step: use Polymarket’s own odds to work backward. Polymarket’s prediction market is, in essence, a collective-intelligence pricing mechanism. If the probability for a certain price level suddenly drops from 30% to 10%, it means “smart money” is withdrawing.

Take today as an example: BTC just broke through $79,000, and on Polymarket the probability of “BTC reaching $80,000” is currently about 45%. I believe this probability is being underestimated, because geopolitical hedging sentiment is still climbing.

So today I placed three bets: $80,000 (main position), $80,500 (small bet for a higher payout), and $79,500 (defensive position).

Prediction isn’t gambling—it’s a probability game. Calculate the win rate clearly, and leave the rest to time.

How do you place bets on Polymarket? Do you have your own prediction logic? Feel free to share and exchange ideas—let’s split this $1,000 reward together!

#比特幣突破7.9萬美元 $BTC