橙子研究院

【 Monthly strong rebound, is a new wave of BTC rally coming? 】
Starting in May, what new changes have appeared in Bitcoin's trend for this new month? Let's analyze together.
First, the monthly chart has closed, and from the monthly perspective, Bitcoin is looking quite bullish. The April candlestick has completely engulfed the March upper shadow, forming a bullish engulfing pattern, which is a strong bullish signal. Plus, the MACD histogram is shrinking, and since the monthly cycle is quite large, we can judge that May will be a good month, at least not experiencing the previous sharp decline. It will likely see a narrowing of the decline and a start of an upward move.
But here, a reminder: this is only the end of a downward trend, not a complete trend reversal. Looking at the MACD, it is still some distance from the zero line. Additionally, considering the previous bear market timing and decline patterns as "carving a boat to seek a sword," a comprehensive judgment suggests that after the rebound, there will still be a final dip structure before a reasonable upward trend.
From the weekly chart, a double bottom pattern has formed, the neckline has been broken and stabilized, and the downward trendline has been broken and stabilized, indicating potential for further upward movement.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has once again reached the upper edge of the flag pattern, which may face some resistance here, requiring some consolidation. Due to the improvement of the larger cycle pattern, the outlook remains optimistic for a breakout, heading towards the CME gap pressure we have mentioned multiple times!
The upper edge of the gap is at 81,210 (CME and exchange values may differ). This time, it is very likely to approach this level, but whether the gap will be filled is uncertain. I am somewhat pessimistic about that, temporarily considering 81,000 as a strong resistance level for this rally.
Having analyzed so much, the trading strategy is quite clear: on a cycle basis, go for smaller timeframes; abandon the previous high-altitude short strategy and switch to buying on dips. After entering the 81,000 zone, judge whether to re-enter short positions based on the strength of the trend.
Regarding CME, here's an interesting point: many market opinions mention that the daily MACD of the exchange's Bitcoin is a death cross. However, looking at CME's Bitcoin MACD, it is not dead but instead turning upward. This indicates a strong bullish trend. Statistically, CME's signals are often more accurate than the exchange's. Let's wait and see how this develops.
Finally, looking at the external environment: in May, Trump visits China, and Iran begins to loosen negotiations. These are potential positive drivers that could boost the market. In summary, May looks promising for the future!

【Bullish divergence is confirmed, is this a breakout or a decline?】
The current market is very delicate. After Bitcoin hit a high of 79,472, it did not drop immediately but chose to enter a consolidation phase.
From the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks are almost flat. Even with the news of Trump canceling his Iran trip causing a slight dip, Bitcoin only dipped slightly, showing relative strength in the market.
Because Bitcoin has refused to decline for three consecutive days under heavy resistance above, we should consider the possibility of new highs in the market, meaning it might challenge the super resistance zone around 81,000.
But at this very moment, the market is very conflicted, and we can say it is at a balance point. Although there is an expectation of new highs, the indicators on the 4-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour charts all confirm a top divergence, so a decline here is also entirely reasonable.
The bulls and bears are fighting, and the direction is unclear...
So how should we operate?
If we are going long here, keep an eye on a defensive level at 76,200. If it effectively breaks below this, we should exit and observe.
For short positions, target 81,000. If there is an effective breakout to fill the gap, there is still room to go higher.
Those without positions don’t need to worry. For Bitcoin to truly break through this level, it must have a high volume and a rapid surge, which will inevitably have a blood-sucking effect.
If Bitcoin really goes higher, we will have plenty of time to catch up on the mainstream coins’ rally, so no need to worry about missing out!
Currently, it’s recommended to observe more and make decisions after the market shows a clear direction!
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【70k Life and Death Line! Will Bitcoin Rebound or Crash?】
As international turmoil shifts, we are at the mercy of our wallets...
After Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback and continued upward as expected, it was shattered by unfavorable first-round talks between the U.S. and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz being blocked from both ends, a negative factor. It once again retreated to the critical support level around 70k, teetering on the edge.
From an external environment perspective, since the negotiations have become more uncertain, we can only continue to conservatively project the market’s development.
Currently, the support around the 70k level is quite resilient. Structurally, this rebound hasn't fully played out; it's just that circumstances are stronger than expectations. There are many examples where short-term trends change due to news, and there's nothing we can do about it.
Because the rebound isn't complete, there hasn't been a direct decline here; instead, a consolidation around 70k has been chosen.
At this moment, the smaller time frame looks relatively healthy, with a divergence on the one-hour chart and a small double bottom appearing. Therefore, we still expect a rebound, but the upside potential isn't as high as before.
The target has shifted from the previous 78,000 flag pattern top to around 74,000, which is the top of the range, also coinciding with the four-hour CME data gap. Overlapping these factors creates significant resistance. Unless there are new developments in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, upward momentum will be hard to sustain.
If the negotiations go smoothly, we can look higher again later.
Looking ahead, to analyze more precisely, we consider the range from 69,600 to 70,400 as a critical zone. A significant break below this would likely mean the end of this rebound and a resumption of the downtrend, which we must watch out for.
Breaking through this zone could accelerate the decline toward 64,000. The support here is limited, and ultimately, it may break below 60k, waiting for an entry opportunity in the 57,000 to 58,000 range!
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【War Reversal + Big Bullish Candle: Is BTC About to Break 82,000?】
The world is a huge makeshift operation. This war between the U.S. and Iran once again proves it. The day before, it was a relentless standoff—then the next moment, Trump announced a temporary pause on military strikes against Iran, and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is enough to make people’s brains feel like they can’t quite process it—what are they playing at? What a farce! Political chess is as childish as ever, but the boost to the financial market is undeniably real. Hearing the news, global markets surged across the board, and BTC’s rally directly pulled out a big bullish candle. With external stimuli, the small trend has seen some reversal.
From a technical perspective, our previous expectation was to first dip to around 63,000, and then start this rebound. Since this rebound has arrived earlier than expected, let’s reorganize the analysis again.
First, let’s make the viewpoint clear: the end of the war does not mean the downtrend is completely over. On a larger timeframe, this month is the sixth month of the bear-market decline. Looking back at previous cycles, the duration of bear-market declines is generally in the range of 10 to 12 months, and there’s still far from enough time.
The current stage is at the tail end of the first leg of the sharp sell-off—the period where a rebound is being brewed. In terms of the wave structure, this is also where the rebound is not far off from the last rebound, and the subsequent final leg of selling pressure. Therefore, 60,000 is not the bottom—it’s a highly probable outcome event!
With that said, don’t panic. The big cycle only sets the tone—trend judgment and decisions on how to trade still need to be analyzed based on the medium- and short-term structure.
From the medium- and short-term structure, the rebound will continue. The weekly chart is about to form a golden cross while still below the waterline. On the daily chart, a mid-to-large bullish candle has been able to hold effectively back within the flag pattern. Even the moving average suppression has been broken—these all indicate that the rebound will keep going.
As for the next move, it’s expected to see some consolidation here. The reason is that it has hit the parallel resistance of the 72,000 small box upper boundary. After the consolidation, the upside is still expected to continue. First, put your focus on the flag’s upper boundary at 78,000. If it can break above it, then the CME gap near 82,000 mentioned multiple times earlier is highly likely to be reached!
In terms of trading: because we saw a high followed by a pullback, a four-hour divergence forming pattern has appeared. The market has a need for consolidation and a pullback. Support is around 698,000—feel free to pay close attention to opportunities to participate around here!
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