BlockBeats News, February 19 — According to CNN, the U.S. military has currently deployed fighter jets, early warning aircraft, and drones in several countries including Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. military has also deployed multiple destroyers and littoral combat ships near the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz. In the North Arabian Sea, there is the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which includes the F-35C Lightning II fighter jet. The Ford carrier strike group is expected to arrive as early as this weekend.
While a large number of U.S. naval and air forces are gathering in the Middle East, Trump has just stated, “We are having good conversations with Iran, and we must reach a meaningful agreement with Iran. We will find an answer to the Iran issue within about 10 days. I no longer care about the Nobel Peace Prize.”
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the U.S. striking Iran before the end of February has risen to 25%, before March 15 to 45%, and before the end of March to 56%.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Waller is fully qualified to serve as Federal Reserve Chair
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari says Waller is qualified to serve as Federal Reserve Chair and looks forward to further discussions. Although the White House officially nominated Waller, his nomination probability has dropped to 95%, while Judy Shelton's nomination probability has increased to 4-5%. Experts believe that even if Waller is not nominated, Shelton is unlikely to become a potential candidate.
GateNewsBot2h ago
Kalshi Rate Forecasts Match Fed Survey Accuracy, Analysis Finds
_Prediction market data from Kalshi shows stronger accuracy than traditional futures and survey forecasts on key macro trends._
Prediction markets are gaining ground in macro forecasting. Federal Reserve economists report that Kalshi’s rate contracts have closely mirrored U.S. monetary
LiveBTCNews4h ago
Opinion: The recent lawsuit outcome of Polymarket will determine the regulatory jurisdiction of the US prediction market.
Polymarket recently filed a lawsuit in Massachusetts, claiming that the regulatory authority over prediction markets belongs to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than the state government. This lawsuit could impact the regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States, determining whether they can bypass state gambling laws or must adhere to individual state regulations.
GateNewsBot4h ago
"Prediction Market ETF" Competition Begins! Roundhill, Bitwise, GraniteShares Lead the Charge
As the Year of the Horse approaches, market-based Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are expected to become highly competitive. Bitwise and GraniteShares have submitted ETF applications to the Securities and Exchange Commission focused on US election outcomes, aiming to financialize prediction markets and attract investors. These ETFs will invest in regulated binary event contracts, combining finance, politics, and speculation. Community reactions are positive, indicating a potential mainstreaming of prediction markets, but regulatory challenges remain.
区块客10h ago
NYSE President Links Polymarket Election Bet to Market Surge
_NYSE President Lynn Martin says Polymarket’s 2024 Trump election odds preceded a spike in S&P futures; ICE invested $2B in Polymarket._
Prediction markets are drawing attention from top financial leaders after NYSE President Lynn Martin said blockchain-based betting platforms influenced
LiveBTCNews11h ago
Federal Reserve researchers say Kalshi data can provide real-time insights for policy making
A paper by three Federal Reserve researchers suggests that data from the prediction market platform Kalshi can more promptly reflect macroeconomic expectations and recommends incorporating it into the Federal Reserve's decision-making framework. This data responds quickly after major policy and economic data releases, but the paper does not represent an official policy stance.
GateNewsBot12h ago