The probability that the court orders Trump to refund tariffs on Kalshi quickly rises to 66%

Federal Reserve Paper Highlights Kalshi as Emerging Macro Forecast Tool

The paper "Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets" highlights the effectiveness of prediction markets in forecasting macroeconomic indicators like inflation and GDP, showing they can outperform traditional methods. It acknowledges regulatory scrutiny while affirming their growing relevance in economics and finance.

Polymarket Traders Place Huge Bets on Growing Odds of Alien Disclosure By U.S. Before 2027

Polymarket traders are increasingly optimistic about U.S. confirmation of extraterrestrial life, with probability rising from 11% to 24%. This speculation, driven by potential declassification orders from Trump, has generated $3.8M in trading volume, reflecting public interest and shifting expectations on government transparency.

"Prediction Market ETF" Competition Begins! Roundhill, Bitwise, GraniteShares Lead the Charge

ETF issuer Bitwise and GraniteShares announced the launch of prediction market ETFs targeting the U.S. election results. This trend promotes the integration of finance and prediction markets and may attract institutional investors. The move reflects the merging of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance and could inject liquidity into prediction markets, but regulatory challenges still remain. If approved, it will become a new investment option, paving the way for the mainstream adoption of prediction markets.

Trump to declassify alien files! Calls on the Department of Defense to release government files on extraterrestrial life and UFOs

Trump announced on Truth Social that he will instruct the Department of War to release files related to aliens and UFOs, attracting market attention. Obama discussed the possibility of extraterrestrial existence on his podcast and clarified that there is no contact evidence. The Pentagon report shows that most UAP sightings can be attributed to ordinary objects. This event has a significant impact on the Polymarket alien betting market, with the relevant probability rising above 20%, and trading volume reaching $4 million.

He relied on counting Musk's tweets to earn $300,000.

Player noovd used an accurate tweet prediction model to focus on Elon Musk's tweet volume on Polymarket, successfully earning over $345,000. He analyzed historical data and built models to extract excess profits from undervalued ranges, demonstrating the importance of numbers and data analysis.

He earned $300,000 on Polymarket by relying on Elon Musk's tweets.

Player noovd profited $345,000 in the market predicting Elon Musk's weekly tweet count. He focuses on undervalued prediction ranges and improves success rates through in-depth analysis of tweet data. This strategy relies on strong execution and data analysis, demonstrating the importance of in-depth research.