Macroeconomics

Goldman Sachs warns of a potential $80 billion sell-off in US stocks, which could negatively impact BTC prices. Meanwhile, gold and silver prices have eased, prompting investor interest despite economic uncertainties.

Despite continuous positive signals such as ETF approvals and institutional adoption, since mid-last year, funds in the crypto market have been steadily flowing out, and Bitcoin's price performance has been more similar to high-growth software stocks in the US rather than traditional safe-haven assets. Grayscale's latest research indicates that the correlation between Bitcoin and the US software sector has significantly increased, showing that its trading logic is more aligned with growth assets. Data shows that from the beginning of 2024 to now, Bitcoin and US software stocks have moved in highly synchronized patterns. During recent sell-offs, both have fluctuated almost in the same direction, indicating that this round of decline is more due to a broad de-risking of growth assets rather than issues specific to the crypto industry itself. Fund flows also confirm this: US investors led the recent sell-off, with related Bitcoin ETPs experiencing approximately $318 million in net outflows since early February, further suppressing prices.

White House Chief Kevin Hassett states that future employment may decline due to slower labor force growth and increased productivity. From November to December, the average non-farm payroll increase was 53,000 per month, far below the pre-pandemic average of 183,000. He emphasizes that the economy is not weak, and tighter immigration combined with rising productivity allows growth even with limited labor force. The January forecast is an increase of 70,000. Powell says that demand and supply are declining simultaneously, making it very difficult to interpret at present.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller stated on February 9 that recent sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin indicate that the TACO trading frenzy that occurred when the Trump administration took office has subsided. Bitcoin fell to $60,000 on February 5, nearly erasing the gains since Trump's election. Waller pointed out that the surge in volatility is driven by regulatory uncertainty and institutional risk management, with companies entering through ETFs being forced to close positions.

Research firm Bernstein maintains its Bitcoin forecast of $150,000 by the end of 2026, stating that the current dip is the least threatening downturn in trading history. The analyst team pointed out that recent weakness stems from a shift in market sentiment rather than a fundamental collapse, and this sell-off has not seen leverage crashes, exchange failures, or systemic vulnerabilities. Institutional support remains solid, with participation from spot ETFs, corporate finance, and mainstream asset management firms unchanged. Miner debt structures are healthy enough to withstand a prolonged downturn.

Bitcoin reported $70,000 on February 10, and remains in a sluggish trend. Long-term holders' net positions decreased by 245,000 BTC, but the total supply increased from 13.63 million to 13.81 million, indicating reallocation. On February 6, 66,940 BTC flowed into accumulated addresses, reaching the weekly maximum, indicating whale accumulation. The Sharpe ratio of -10 hits a new low, consistent with the late bear market.

Sanae Takashi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has secured an over two-thirds supermajority in the House of Representatives, marking a historic turning point in Japanese politics. The market bets that Takashi's policies will drive expansionary fiscal measures, leading the yen to weaken against the US dollar to the 157.50 range. The Japanese stock market benefited from policy tailwinds and surged strongly, while the bond market was pressured by expectations of fiscal expansion. This victory not only consolidates Takashi's ruling position but also signals Japan's move toward an economic path characterized by large-scale borrowing to support public spending.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi achieved the biggest post-war victory in the February 8 parliamentary election, with the Liberal Democratic Party expected to secure 274 to 326 seats. The market responded quickly, with the US dollar rising 0.2% against the yen to 157, and Bitcoin surging 5% against the yen. The strong mandate paves the way for crypto tax reforms, with the current top rate of 55% potentially reduced to 20%, along with capital gains tax and allowing loss carryforwards for three years.

Economist and Bitcoin advocate Lyn Alden states that the Federal Reserve is entering gradual money printing, mildly stimulating without large-scale liquidity injections. She recommends holding scarce assets and balancing from optimistic sectors to underweighted ones. Trump nominates hawkish Waugh, with March rate cut expectations dropping to 19.9%. Alden says all policies will ultimately lead to currency depreciation.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that TradFi and crypto services will be closely intertwined in the future, and is exploring community bank participation in digital assets. She urged passage of the CLARITY Act, warning that regulators unwilling to accept oversight could lead to a "de-Salvadorization." Several crypto companies have made concessions, suggesting that community banks participate in stablecoin systems to avoid deposit fluctuations.

Trump nominates Kevin Wash to be Federal Reserve Chair, gold plunges 8.35%, the largest drop in 40 years, and the US dollar index rises over 1%. Wash advocates a contradictory combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," believing AI is a deflationary force and refusing to be a major buyer of US Treasuries. Nomura and Barclays have serious disagreements over his hawkish and dovish stances.

Recent security incidents linked to wallet software have once again highlighted a central truth of crypto ownership: self-custody comes with responsibility. Following reports tied to a browser extension issue involving Trust Wallet Hack, users across the ecosystem are reassessing how they

Charlie Munger emphasized in an interview that experiencing market fluctuations is normal in long-term investing, and the key is to stay calm. Facing major market shocks with composure is a necessary condition for becoming a successful shareholder. Excellent investors can maintain a philosopher's calmness amidst volatility; technical analysis is not the key to gaining an edge.

The NASDAQ index experienced its most severe two-day consecutive plunge, Bitcoin crashed close to $70,000, gold slightly rose, and the US dollar recovered its losses. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated "support for a strong dollar," drawing a red line, indicating that the dollar is no longer a stable asset. This round of pressure overwhelmed crowded trades (gold, Bitcoin), leading to a stampede in assets driven by consensus. However, the 2-year US Treasury yield slightly declined, reducing the likelihood of systemic risk outbreak.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was questioned by the House of Representatives on Wednesday, focusing on the conflict of interest between Trump WLFI and the United Arab Emirates. The Wall Street Journal reported that before Trump's inauguration, the UAE secretly invested $500 million to acquire a 49% stake in WLFI. Lawmakers called for a suspension of WLFI's banking license and questioned whether Yellen has the authority to "rescue Bitcoin." Yellen explicitly responded that neither the U.S. Treasury nor the Financial Stability Oversight Council has such authority.

CME Group Chairman Duffy's earnings report will reveal a collaboration with Google Cloud to develop tokenized cash, scheduled for launch in 2026 for derivatives collateral. Following the CFTC pilot accepting USDC, BTC, ETH. The token transfer risk is not capital, unlike stablecoins, with trillions of dollars in settlement becoming a financial core.

Trump and allies raise $429 million, setting a record, with Maga PAC holding $304 million. The biggest donor, Crypto.com, donates $30 million; OpenAI's Brockman contributes $12.5 million; A16Z founders each donate $3 million. The crypto industry and Silicon Valley are investing heavily to gain regulatory relief, especially in crypto legislation and opposition to state-level AI regulation. The funds may be used for midterm elections or to maintain influence after leaving office.

Trump nominates Kevin Wash as Federal Reserve Chair. Wash criticizes long-term tightening policies, and market expectations shift towards easing. CME FedWatch shows a 46% chance of rate cuts at the first meeting. Market confidence rebounds, stocks rise first, followed by cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin reacts strongly to liquidity expectations, and altcoins respond even more quickly.

IMF latest data shows that the proportion of RMB reserves has dropped from 2.83% to 1.93%. USDT in circulation exceeds $305 billion, with transactions reaching $56.7 trillion. Chinese exporters use USDT to evade capital controls, with settlement amounts increasing fivefold. The RMB share in SWIFT has decreased to 2.89%. USDT and Bitcoin are absorbing the demand that Chinese restrictions cannot meet.