Gate News message: As tensions between the United States and Iran ease, prices across multiple asset classes have risen in tandem. However, on the prediction market platform Polymarket, some traders have earned astonishing returns by making highly accurate bets on the outcome of a ceasefire, sparking widespread discussion in the market about insider trading. On-chain data analysis shows that the user BlueHorseshoe86 profited about $194k from related events, with its historical cumulative gains reaching $440k, all from predictions involving major political events.
Another trader was even more aggressive, putting $13,200 into a single bet and ultimately earning more than $470k in returns, for a return on investment of nearly 3,500%. In addition, a wallet address labeled as “suspicious” made highly precise predictions at the key time points of Iran’s military action and the ceasefire, with cumulative profits exceeding $400k. The timing and outcome matches for these trading behaviors are extremely high, leading market observers to question whether the trader had access to undisclosed information.
Although there is currently no definitive evidence proving insider trading, the frequent appearance of similar cases has posed challenges to the fairness of prediction markets. Industry insiders say that decentralized prediction platforms essentially rely on information transparency and market competition; once information asymmetry occurs, it may weaken the effectiveness of their pricing mechanisms.
Regulators are also starting to pay attention to this trend. U.S. lawmakers are pushing to expand the regulatory framework, focusing on cracking down on behavior that places bets using policy information. Meanwhile, Polymarket has updated its platform rules to clearly prohibit trading based on confidential information or participating in markets whose outcomes can be affected by the participant themselves, in order to strengthen market integrity.
Against the backdrop of heightened macro uncertainty and frequent geopolitical events, activity on prediction markets has increased significantly. But how to strike a balance between openness and compliance has become a key issue the industry urgently needs to resolve.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Kalshi Faces Supreme Court Battle as Inflation Volatility Fuels Prediction Market Hedging Demand
Kalshi and Polymarket face a potential Supreme Court showdown over the legality of prediction markets as inflation rises and stock markets hit record highs. The outcome may redefine how traders hedge economic risks amid conflicting court rulings on their operations.
GateNews4h ago
Polymarket Seeks $400M in New Funding at $15 Billion Valuation
Polymarket is seeking an additional $400 million in funding after raising $600 million at a $15 billion valuation, which has increased from $9 billion last year. Despite this growth, it still lags behind competitor Kalshi Inc.'s $22 billion valuation.
GateNews4h ago
Kevin Warsh 成首位「Tech Bro」Fed 主席提名人：AI 樂觀派、持 SpaceX 與 Polymarket 股份
Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, becomes the first “Tech Bro” Fed chair, closely connected with Silicon Valley giants, and argues that AI can reduce inflation and supports an accommodative monetary policy. His Silicon Valley background could influence the Fed’s interest-rate decisions; expectations for the crypto market are positive, but the risk of conflicts of interest also needs to be considered. His appointment process and future policy direction will affect the U.S. Dollar Index and valuations of Taiwan stocks.
ChainNewsAbmedia9h ago
Major CEX Launches Event Contracts For Short-Term BTC And ETH Price Trading
A global exchange has launched Event Contracts, allowing users to bet on Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements over set timeframes. This simplified trading option features low costs and automatic settlement, aimed at easing short-term investment strategies.
GateNews12h ago
Polymarket Raises $400M at $15B Valuation With Intercontinental Exchange Support
Polymarket is seeking to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation, adding to a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange. This funding aims to enhance infrastructure and liquidity for its event-based trading platform, amid ongoing debates over its valuation and market potential.
GateNews16h ago
Charles Schwab Explores Prediction Markets Tied to Financial Events Amid Regulatory Scrutiny
Charles Schwab is considering introducing prediction markets for financial events amid growing Wall Street interest, while maintaining a focus on wealth management. Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, especially regarding sports and entertainment wagers, highlighted by recent legislation and concerns over insider trading and market manipulation.
GateNews17h ago
