Fidelity Outlook: Is the Crypto Market "Super Cycle" Coming? 2026 Could Mark the End of the Traditional Four-Year Bull Market

Global asset management giant Fidelity’s subsidiary, Fidelity Digital Assets, has released a 2026 crypto market outlook, presenting a provocative view: the cryptocurrency market may be bidding farewell to the traditional four-year cycle and entering a multi-year “super cycle.”

This judgment is based on two major structural changes: sovereign nations (such as the US and Kyrgyzstan) officially incorporating crypto assets into strategic reserves, and the trend of publicly traded companies purchasing Bitcoin evolving from isolated cases to a global movement. Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity, points out that although the market faces short-term correction pressures, the fundamental shift in investor structure indicates that enormous potential has yet to be fully unleashed. For long-term investors, viewing Bitcoin as a store of value, it’s never too late to enter.

Crypto Paradigm Shift: From “Gambler’s Game” to National Strategic Reserves’ Bold Leap

Looking back to 2025, the most epoch-making event in the crypto space may not be a new token’s surge but an executive order from the world’s most powerful government. In March 2025, President Trump signed an order officially designating Bitcoin and other specific cryptocurrencies held by the US government as national strategic reserve assets. This move, like a giant stone called “sovereign credit” cast into a pond once dominated by retail and institutional investors, has created ripples that are redefining the underlying logic of the entire market.

Fidelity Digital Assets keenly captures this fundamental shift in its outlook report. It notes that cryptocurrencies are no longer merely seen as tools for “Degens” to speculate on volatility but have gained official endorsement from the US government as a store of value. This elevation signifies far more than short-term price fluctuations. It means that cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are beginning to be included in the asset-liability sheets and risk hedging frameworks of the world’s top power centers. This is not just “recognition” but a serious financial asset allocation based on national interests and strategic considerations.

Such sovereign-level actions have a strong demonstrative and contagious effect. Kuiper explains this trend using “game theory”: “More countries may buy Bitcoin in the future… If more nations include Bitcoin as part of their foreign exchange reserves, others may feel competitive pressure, increasing the likelihood of similar actions.” In September 2025, Kyrgyzstan passed legislation establishing a national crypto reserve; Brazil’s Congress is also advancing a bill allowing up to 5% of international reserves to be held in Bitcoin. These cases outline a clear picture: a collective rediscovery and competition over Bitcoin’s “digital gold” properties driven by national actors is underway. From a simple supply and demand perspective, this creates an unprecedented, massive, and potentially long-term stable new demand source for Bitcoin.

Dual Demand Engines: The “Institutionalization” Wave of National Reserves and Corporate Balance Sheets

If sovereign reserves are the primary engine driving the paradigm shift, then the trend of global corporations incorporating cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets constitutes a strong and sustained “secondary engine.” Fidelity’s outlook explicitly states that corporations have become an important and不可忽视的 crypto demand force by 2026.

A flagship example is MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy). Since 2020, the company has continuously bought Bitcoin, and its stock MSTR is even viewed as a “Bitcoin spot ETF substitute.” However, the report emphasizes that the key change in 2025 is that this has evolved from a single company’s independent action into a global trend. As of November 2025, over 100 publicly listed companies (including domestic US and international firms) hold cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets, with about 50 holding over 1 million BTC. These companies span industries such as tech, finance, and asset management, forming a dispersed yet powerful buying network.

Sovereign and corporate crypto reserves: Key trends of 2025-2026 at a glance

Sovereign level:

• USA: March 2025, via executive order, designated existing crypto holdings as national strategic reserves.
• Kyrgyzstan: September 2025, passed legislation establishing a national crypto reserve.
• Brazil: Congress is pushing a bill to allow up to 5% of international reserves to be allocated to Bitcoin.
• Underlying logic: driven by geopolitical and financial security “game theory,” forming a competitive reserve trend.

Corporate level:

• Scale: Over 100 global listed companies hold cryptocurrencies, with about 50 holding over 1 million BTC.
• Benchmark case: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to increase holdings, with its stock becoming a Bitcoin proxy.
• Driving factors: 1) Arbitrage opportunities (leveraging financing to buy); 2) Providing exposure for investors unable to invest directly; 3) Diversification of assets and long-term value storage.
• Potential risks: In a bear market or liquidity crisis, forced sales by companies could exacerbate market downturns.

Kuiper analyzes the deeper motivations behind corporate participation: “Obviously, arbitrage opportunities exist—some companies can leverage their market position or financing channels to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases.” Additionally, this is an indirect way to serve investors: “For example, investors unable to buy Bitcoin directly might gain exposure through these companies or their issued securities.” This “corporate as conduit” model greatly expands the potential investor base for Bitcoin, especially for traditional capital constrained by regulation or geography.

However, Fidelity’s report also soberly notes the embedded risks. Corporate actions can boost prices in bull markets but may also amplify selling pressure in extreme cases: “If these companies choose or are forced to sell some digital assets—say, during a bear market—this could put downward pressure on Bitcoin or other digital assets they hold.” This implies that future market volatility could be influenced not only by retail sentiment and macro factors but also by asset impairments or liquidity needs during earnings seasons. This institutionalization, while providing stable long-term demand, also introduces new, more complex systemic risks.

Cycle Debate: End of the Traditional Four-Year Pattern or the Dawn of a “Super Cycle”?

In the face of current market corrections, every investor’s core question is: has the bull run starting in late 2020 ended? Fidelity’s outlook offers no simple “yes” or “no” but guides us into a deep reflection on the essence of market cycles.

Since its inception, Bitcoin’s price has roughly followed a four-year cycle: peaks in November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, followed by deep corrections. This cycle is closely associated with Bitcoin’s “halving” events, ingrained in the cognition of older crypto investors. According to this script, we are now about four years after the last peak (November 2021), and recent price corrections are easily interpreted as signals of a market top and the start of a bear market.

(Has the four-year Bitcoin cycle ended? Source: Fidelity report)

But the Fidelity report presents an alternative possibility: this decade-long four-year cycle may be breaking down. It cites an increasingly prevalent view in the market: we might be at the beginning of a “super cycle.” A “super cycle” refers to a long-term trend driven by structural, fundamental shifts in supply and demand, lasting far beyond traditional cycles. Historically, the commodity super cycle driven by emerging markets’ industrialization in the early 21st century lasted nearly a decade. Analogously, the forces driving a “super cycle” in crypto are the paradigm-level demand-side revolutions brought about by the aforementioned national reserves and corporate asset allocations.

Kuiper remains cautiously open-minded. He does not believe that the human nature-driven “fear and greed” cycle will completely disappear, but he points out contradictions with historical scripts: “If the four-year cycle were to repeat, we should have already hit a new all-time high in this cycle and entered a full bear market.” In fact, Bitcoin has surpassed its 2021 high multiple times in 2025, but subsequent corrections have not evolved into prolonged deep bear markets like those in 2018 or 2022. Therefore, current declines could be interpreted in two ways: either as the start of a new long bear market, or merely as a deep correction within a long upward trend, setting the stage for new highs.

Fidelity believes the final answer may only be revealed around mid-2026. The core of this “cycle debate” hinges on whether the newly added institutional and sovereign demand is strong enough to significantly raise Bitcoin’s price baseline and smooth out its declines, thereby rewriting its historical volatility pattern.

Investment Insights: What “Now” Means for Different Investors

At this crossroads of paradigm shift, cycle uncertainty, and market volatility, Fidelity’s report ultimately returns to a very practical question: for investors who have yet to enter, is it too late to buy Bitcoin now? Kuiper offers a layered, dialectical answer, centered on distinguishing investors’ time horizons and fundamental beliefs.

For short- or medium-term investors (e.g., within four years), Kuiper hints at increased risks: “You might already be late, especially if this cycle ultimately follows historical patterns.” This is because, if the traditional four-year cycle remains valid, the market could already be in the late stage of a bull run, with higher downside risk than upside potential in the short term. Traders attempting to “bottom fish” or chase short-term trends face high uncertainty and volatility.

However, Kuiper then offers a different perspective for long-term believers: “From a very long-term perspective, I personally believe that if you see Bitcoin as a store of value, then you are never truly ‘too late.’” This assertion is based on Bitcoin’s core design: a fixed supply capped at 21 million coins. As long as this fundamental property remains unchanged, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against fiat inflation and a long-term store of value remains valid. Kuiper explains: “I believe every purchase of Bitcoin is an investment of your labor or savings into something that won’t be devalued by government monetary policy-induced inflation.”

Thus, Fidelity’s outlook provides investors with a decision map: your choice depends not on short-term market tops and bottoms, but on your investment philosophy—whether you see Bitcoin as a highly volatile asset suitable for tactical trading, or as a long-term digital store of value to hedge systemic fiat risks. The former requires skillful timing and risk tolerance, especially in this uncertain phase; the latter relies on a simple, steadfast belief in its long-term narrative—willing to ignore short- and medium-term noise. The report does not advocate blind entry but encourages deep self-assessment and cognitive upgrade.

Further Reading

What is Fidelity Digital Assets: The Crypto Bridge for Traditional Finance

Fidelity Digital Assets is a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, founded in 2018, focusing on digital assets. Fidelity Investments is one of the world’s largest asset managers, managing trillions of dollars in client assets. The establishment of Fidelity Digital Assets marks a systematic entry of a traditional financial giant into the crypto space, with its core positioning as providing a secure, compliant gateway for institutional investors into digital assets.

Core services and offerings:

1. Institutional custody: Provides hybrid cold/hot wallet storage solutions compliant with strict regulations, being one of the first to obtain a trust license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, serving hedge funds, family offices, corporations, etc.
2. Trading execution: Offers crypto trading services for institutional clients, connecting multiple liquidity sources to secure best prices.
3. Research and analysis: Regularly publishes in-depth research reports on crypto markets, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc., supporting institutional decision-making. The 2026 outlook exemplifies its research strength.
4. Retirement account integration: In the US, Fidelity allows investors to include Bitcoin in their 401(k) retirement accounts, greatly lowering the barrier for ordinary people to hold Bitcoin long-term.

Industry position and influence: Fidelity Digital Assets is not just an ordinary exchange or startup; it leverages Fidelity’s century-long reputation, extensive client network, and deep compliance experience. Its every move is seen as a barometer of traditional finance’s acceptance of crypto assets. Its custody service alleviates security concerns for institutional capital; its research provides an authoritative analysis framework from a traditional finance perspective. In essence, Fidelity Digital Assets is one of the most important and stable bridges connecting Wall Street and the crypto world.

Understanding “Super Cycle”: Historical Context and Crypto Market Uniqueness

The “super cycle” concept in Fidelity’s report is not created out of thin air; it has deep historical roots in commodity markets. Understanding past super cycles helps evaluate whether the crypto market has similar conditions.

Historical super cycle examples: The most classic is the early 21st-century commodity super cycle (roughly 2000–2011). Its core driver was the rapid industrialization and urbanization of emerging markets like China and India, creating massive, sustained, and rigid demand for oil, copper, iron ore, and other industrial raw materials. This demand was structural and global, lasting nearly a decade, with prices experiencing corrections but overall trending upward, fundamentally changing the long-term price range of related commodities.

Potential drivers of a crypto “super cycle”:

1. Structural demand shift: Similar to the demand from emerging markets for raw materials, the current demand from sovereign nations (as reserve assets) and global corporations (as asset-liability allocations) for Bitcoin is a new, enormous demand source. This is no longer purely speculative but driven by long-term strategic asset allocation needs.
2. Absolute supply rigidity: Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins is its most fundamental difference from commodities. Commodities’ supply can increase with price (by mining more), eventually balancing the market. Bitcoin’s supply growth is pre-set and diminishes over time, making its price rise pressure more pure and significant in the face of growing demand.
3. Financialization and globalization: Bitcoin has been a global, highly financialized asset since inception. ETF approvals, derivatives markets, global payment network experiments—all accelerate its financial attributes and attract broader capital participation.

Key differences and challenges: Unlike physical commodities, Bitcoin does not generate cash flows from industrial use; its value is entirely based on consensus. Its “super cycle” sustainability depends more on continuous consensus reinforcement and expansion rather than physical economic consumption. It faces ongoing technological competition (other blockchains), regulatory uncertainties, and extreme price volatility. Whether structural demand can translate into a stable, long-term upward trend and smooth out past 80% drawdowns is critical in judging the “super cycle.”

Fidelity’s report places the crypto market within this grand historical and theoretical framework. It reminds us that simple analogies may fail; what we are witnessing could be a unique chapter authored by digital technology, monetary philosophy, and global capital.

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