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To truly understand the current market fluctuations, you need to step back and look at the bigger picture.
Many people in the market are still immersed in the old story of "the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and liquidity returning," but the reality has already reversed. Expectations of rate cuts are swinging back and forth, congressional funding is stuck halfway, and the threat of a government shutdown still looms overhead—any one of these variables changing could rewrite short-term liquidity expectations.
The market is pricing based on past narratives, but the power to set prices may be diverging from reality. This misalignment often marks the boundary between risk and opportunity.