#ETH 11.23 Sunday Night Ayi's Analysis
Personal suggestion, for reference only (strictly set stop-loss)
Ayi suggests to short around 2850, add at 2930, target 2730, 2650 $ETH

#ETH Three major events in December could reshape the year-end market trend.
Let’s look at the timeline: at the beginning of the month, the Fed stops quantitative tightening; on the 4th, the Ethereum network upgrade goes live; on the 18th, the interest rate cut decision will be announced. These three key dates basically frame the market rhythm for the coming month.
But now there’s a more urgent issue—something’s happening in Japan. Their long-term government bond yields have spiked dramatically, with the 20-year yield jumping to around 2.8% and the 40-year climbing to 3.7%. What does this mea

#BTC Interest rates will be cut in December, in my opinion.

#ETH Major whale alert is cooling down. A major player just acquired another 7,837 ETH in a single transaction—that’s equivalent to $21.9M worth of Ethereum added to their holdings.
This isn’t their first rodeo. Their total holdings? An astonishing 440,558 ETH, currently valued at around $1.23 billion. Yes, you heard that right. Over a billion dollars’ worth of ETH stored in a single wallet.
Moves like this usually send some sort of signal. It could be accumulation in anticipation of upcoming price action, or perhaps institutional positioning ahead of a major catalyst. Either way, when whales

#ETH Damn, no rebound, it dropped from 3020 to 2880, just like yesterday morning.

Fed minutes + Nvidia earnings report coming! Trillion-dollar Fluctuation imminent?
Fed October FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes will be released to the public at 2 PM Eastern Time on November 19, which is 3 AM Beijing Time on November 20.
NVIDIA Q3 FY2026 financial report: Scheduled to be released after the market closes on November 19, Eastern Time, corresponding to 5:20 AM Beijing Time on November 20. After the report is released, NVIDIA will also hold an analyst conference call. #美联储会议纪要将公布

#热点分析 U.S. economic stagnation warning
Today, the article by Nick from the Federal Reserve Communications makes the prospect of a rate cut in December in the United States even more ambiguous.
White House economic advisor Hassett recently hinted that the shutdown could lead to an economic loss of 15 billion, potentially causing the GDP to turn negative in the fourth quarter.

#BTC
BTC has fallen below $97,000, currently reported at $96,903, with a 5-minute decline of 0.61%. #比特币 BTC

U.S. stocks are widening their pre-market losses, currently down 0.68%. A low open followed by a decline is almost unavoidable. For now, I'm not considering going long, let's see if we can bounce back after testing the 30-day line during the session.

Discrepancies over the Fed's interest rate cut in December have sharply increased, and the shadow of stagflation looms #美联储# U.S. interest rate cut.

At 15:00, Germany will release the final value of the October CPI monthly rate. The main event comes in the evening—at 22:20, Williams will speak, at 23:00, Paulson will speak, at 23:20, Governor Waller has a meeting scheduled, and at 23:45, Treasury Secretary Basant will also speak.
There are several events overnight: At 01:00 the next day, EIA releases its monthly energy outlook, at 01:15 Bostic continues to speak, and at 01:30 there will be activities from the Milan Council. At 02:00, the results of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond auction (winning yield and bid-to-cover ratio) will be releas

#BTC The U.S. government continues to ramp up its tariff strategy as a negotiating tool. During his first term, the president claimed that hundreds of billions of dollars had been raised through tariffs on Chinese goods. The latest statement further solidifies Washington's belief that economic leverage—especially through trade barriers—remains key to maintaining the so-called "strong position."
This means that uncertainty in global trade flows continues for the market. Tariff escalations are often associated with spikes in the volatility of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Traders

#BTC Go long on Bitcoin price above $108,500, target $112,000, stop loss $105,000, Buy the Dips.

This week's schedule is crazy.
Monday → The U.S. government shutdown ends
Tuesday → FOMC confirms the next interest rate cut
Wednesday → The Federal Reserve printed $1.5 trillion
Thursday → CPI Data Report
Friday → Sign the cryptocurrency legalization bill
trended on hot search

#热点分析 Next Week's Outlook
Next week, overseas markets will focus on the progress of the U.S. government shutdown, U.S. Treasury issuance, speeches by Bostic and Federal Reserve officials, and U.S. stock earnings reports.

Yesterday while watching the market, I noticed a detail: the market maker funds for BTC withdrew yesterday morning, while the market maker for ETH only started to exit this morning. Moreover, there are still hundreds of millions in funds stubbornly holding on in the Spot and futures market data.

The wave of layoffs in the United States has reached a new high for the same period in 20 years.
However, the Federal Reserve has voiced a different opinion.

Don't panic, it's stabilized.
Yesterday I just predicted that liquidity would reverse, and tonight the market stabilized.
In the evening of October, the ADP non-farm payroll added 42,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 30,000, and the market's biggest concern of "stagflation" did not occur.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced a refinancing plan of 125 billion for the fourth quarter, among which it is noteworthy that on the 12th, 46 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds will be issued, and on the 13th, 25 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds will be issued.

#ETH Focus on long positions during the day.