04:51
CITIC Construction Investment: The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to continue, which will inject new momentum into the rise of gold prices.
According to a report by Jinse Finance, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the explanatory power of marginal demand on gold pricing has increased. Returning to traditional supply and demand logic, due to relatively stable gold supply, with annual production basically maintained at around 3600 tons, the true pricing variable for gold lies in demand, especially marginal demand. Gold demand mainly includes three parts: private sector consumption demand, private sector investment demand, and official gold purchasing demand. In the past, marginal demand for gold was mainly contributed by ETF demand from Europe and the United States (private sector investment demand in Europe and the United States, mainly from overseas institutional investors), and its demand or investment framework mainly depended on the real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds. Private sector investment demand in Europe and the United States (such as ETF demand) still shows a strong correlation with the real interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds. As U.S. inflation recedes and labor market resilience declines, expectations for Fed interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are rising, leading to a decline in nominal and real interest rates driven by the onset of rate cuts.
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