Trend Exhaustion Analysis
1929: The Great Depression
1968: Prolonged bear market → monetary tightening → fiat currency
2001: Dot-com bubble burst → 2008 global financial crisis
2025: Unknown
Declines:
1929: -86%
1968: -48% (inflation-adjusted: -78%)
2001: -57% (inflation-adjusted: -66%)
All of these downturns took more than 10 years to recover.

The most reasonable explanation for the recent major sell-off pressure on BTC is that several cases have shaken the confidence of those involved in black and gray markets, leading to selling.
They no longer believe this thing can save their lives.

Although the price of $BTC is not friendly today and has even fallen below recent lows, Nvidia's third-quarter financial report is indeed good, which has boosted tech stocks and slightly pumped Crypto Assets. At least for now, the AI bubble has not burst, and it is unclear whether this will encourage users who recently exited tech stocks to come back, but indeed, the data in the weekly report also shows that institutions are starting to Build a Position.
Additionally, there is the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes today, and the content in the minutes is much better than the

📰Morning Hotspots on November 19📰
▻ Trump hints that the Federal Reserve chair candidate has been decided, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant: President Trump may announce the next Federal Reserve chair before Christmas.
▻ The daily RSI of Bitcoin has fallen below 30, indicating an oversold signal from technical indicators. Today's fear and greed index has risen to 15, still classified as extreme fear.
▻ U.S. OCC: Banks can hold certain cryptocurrencies to pay Gas fees, Federal Reserve's Barkin: Agrees with Powell's view, December rate cut is not a done deal.
▻ The IRS proposed to th

Emotions and attention are the most valuable things for everyone.
You are pouring a lot of attention into a market that causes you deep pain, and every day is just continuous internal consumption, until you no longer believe. When a real opportunity or market comes, you will subconsciously deny and avoid it, because your mental energy has been exhausted. Your brain knows it can no longer continue, which will make you deny and avoid opportunities, entering a "energy protection" defense mechanism.
This is the life tragedy of an old leek.
Investing meaningless attention in a large number of meani

To make a good trade, the difficult part is not seeing the opportunity, but rather judging whether this opportunity is worth pursuing.
Prices are moving every day, but most of the fluctuations are just noise. Before you take action, you need to confirm a few key changes first:
Is the amplitude of each fluctuation expanding or shrinking?
Has the original trend started to stagnate?
Has the pullback reached the key support?
Is there a significant weakening of momentum?
These things are clearly written in the chart.
Tools like price action, moving average structure, retracement levels, and diverge

🧐The encryption panic index has suddenly dropped to 15 | What does the market sentiment officially entering the "extreme fear" zone indicate——
In the past 24 hours, it has dropped from 24 to 15, with a cliff-like decline in sentiment;
A week ago it was 27 (fear), a month ago it was even around 38 (neutral). Today the government opened up, and the sentiment has directly entered extreme panic.
The current state is typical:
The price hasn't crashed yet, but the sentiment has already collapsed.
The aftershocks of the 1011 crash have not dissipated, market liquidity is insufficient, uncertaint

Will the end of the standstill benefit the risk market, and if so, in what form?
Recently, I have seen many investors questioning whether the expectations of a government shutdown have already materialized and whether the market has begun to overreact from the positive expectations, now turning into negative, especially since the decline on Tuesday $BTC has led some investors to believe that this is another phase of "Sell The News." However, I have a slightly different perspective, as the end of the shutdown will have a tangible positive effect on liquidity, which includes:
First, the moment

【U.S. Solana Spot ETF Total Net Inflows of $6.78 million in a single day, continuous net inflows for 10 days】
According to SoSoValue data, on November 10th Eastern Time, the U.S. Solana spot ETF had a total net inflow of $6.78 million, marking 10 consecutive days of net inflows. The Bitwise Solana Spot ETF BSOL had a single-day net inflow of $5.92 million, with a total net inflow of $330 million. The Grayscale Solana Spot ETF GSOL had a single-day net inflow of $850,000, with a total net inflow of $12.8 million. As of press time, the total net asset value of Solana spot ETFs was $598 million,

Qian Zhimin, after scamming a large amount of money in China, in June 2014, bought 100,000 bitcoins with 180 million on Huobi, gradually increasing his holdings to nearly 190,000 bitcoins. He then stored the bitcoins in a wallet on a laptop and escaped China in 2017, first sneaking into Myanmar, then flying to Thailand, transferring through Laos, and later going to the UK via Malaysia. However, after selling coins for a villa in the UK, he triggered anti-money laundering investigations, which scared him into hiding for six years, but he was finally caught last year.

Respect to every trader with this message!
Embarking on the path of trading is like setting your life to a hellish difficulty level.
From the moment you step into the world of trading, your life is no longer ordinary. Most professions in the world involve resisting external forces, relying on external resources, rules, and team collaboration.
But trading is a lonely journey, a continuous process of inward exploration and self-struggle.
It not only tests your skills and wisdom but also challenges whether you can reconcile with your own humanity. From resistance to compromise, from compromise to

A good trading plan is not about predicting the market, but about knowing what to do and what not to do in different states.
Step 1: Confirm the trend direction.
First, determine the current market state: uptrend, downtrend, or sideways.
Uptrend → Only consider long opportunities
Downtrend → Only consider short opportunities
Sideways market → Long on dips or wait for a breakout
Step 2: Assess the price position
Having the right direction is not enough; you also need to check if the "position" is reasonable.
In an uptrend, only go long if the price is above support.
In a downtrend, only go shor

AIA has increased tenfold, while other altcoins are barely alive or dying.

Today’s rally in the risk markets was widely believed to be due to the impending end of the US government shutdown. However, there’s no clear evidence that a bipartisan consensus has been reached yet. A more likely catalyst is the probability of the Supreme Court upholding Trump’s global tariffs dropping to 29%. If tariffs are ruled illegal, US companies could benefit from lower supply chain costs, improved profits, and eased inflation pressures—particularly advantageous for the tech, semiconductor, and cross-border manufacturing sectors.
$BTC Today, the turnover rate decreased, and early tra