Recently, I’ve been rereading Taleb’s *Fooled by Randomness*. There were some things I couldn’t understand the first time I read it, but after two years, I’ve come back to it and gained much deeper insight. The book constructs a complete theoretical system of randomness, with its core conceptual framework centered around randomness, extending to key concepts such as black swan events, survivorship bias, path dependence, probability blindness, skewed distributions, and more. These concepts do not exist in isolation but form an interconnected and progressively layered theoretical network.
Within

BTC Large-Scale Trend Expectations and Plans
Currently, BTC is undergoing a daily-level correction, with an internal 4-hour, 3-leg adjustment structure. Since the third leg is quite strong and there is no obvious 30-minute divergence within it, I don't think the third leg is over yet. I am more inclined toward the red (30-minute level) direction. That is, first, there will be a 5-minute central oscillation rebound within this range to correct the oversold conditions, restoring the 4- to 6-hour indicators, and then making a new low to trigger a 4-hour rebound (green path).
At that point, the ma

There are always some people who look down on reading candlestick charts and Chan theory structures, thinking these are useless, fake, and deceptive.
However, for this recent BTC top and big drop, those who saw it coming were basically all technical analysts. The other camps—macro, value, data-driven, or orthodox Wall Street elites—seemingly none of them did. At least, I didn’t see any.
During last month’s and early this month’s livestreams, when predicting the overall trend for BTC, only Chan theory told me that the weekly uptrend was about to end. At that time, almost no one online was talki

At present, it seems that Bitcoin has stabilized, with key resistance around $93,000 to $93,300. I might take some profit here for a short-term trade, and I won't focus on the resistance for Ethereum, just keeping in sync with Bitcoin.

A serving of stir-fried noodles, quietly.

BTC 93000 here is the key support of the 10-day line, whether a bottom is being formed here is currently judged to be too early, because the level is too large, one K is 10 days, the support at this moment only brings an oversold rebound at the level below 8 hours.
The short-term pressure is at 96900 for 2 hours, with key pressure around 99000 for 4 hours, and there are still 3 selling expectations in the 30-minute chart.
So the future trend can basically be judged as here we are going to enter a new 30-minute central consolidation.
If this week continues to make new lows, it's very danger

aster is approaching the first target. The pump on weekend evenings does not represent the true market data intentions, so I've taken profits on half of my position at the current price, and for the remaining half, I'll continue to take profit and adjust my stop loss following the 1-minute trend.

I took a glance at the aster structure and felt a bit tempted. The only downside is that I missed the starting point of the third segment of the five-minute central pivot, and the stop loss is a bit larger.
Those varieties that haven't been bought are looked down upon, while those that have been bought are restless.

#LTC Litecoin has followed the expected five minutes 3 buy and 1 sell red route. For short-term, you can choose to take profit, while for medium term, you can continue to hold until there is a five minutes 2 sell to close all positions, which will still be timely.
To make the right trades and earn more, and to make the wrong trades and lose less, many people earn but can't hold on, while they resist losses with all their might. Setting aside human weaknesses, the main reason is the lack of clarity in the level of trades, not knowing whether the rise is over or the fall is finished, filled

#LTC The spicy strips, as analyzed yesterday, have already started a 30-minute rebound, so 93.22 is the 30-minute second buy. If the intraday 5-minute pullback does not touch 99.1, then it will be the 5-minute third buy. Those who haven't entered a position can either enter a position or increase the position.
There are two situations for take profit targets.
1. On the short term, after the 5-minute 3 buy shows a new high, reduce the position or close the position (red route)
2. Five minutes 3 buy failed Rebound 2 sell all (black route)
Currently, the five-minute segment is not in diverge

‍#LTC LTC has gone through a rather complex daily chart expansion and upgrading central pattern in recent years. If we take 49.8 as a0 for the same level decomposition, there have already been two daily chart pullbacks without breaking new lows. 79.68 can temporarily be considered as a daily chart class 2 buy.
The current blue box here indicates a 30-minute pullback. If it does not break below 79.68, it will be a 30-minute second buy. Based on the current internal downward structure, I believe the probability of a second buy being established is quite high. Intraday, we should look for buying

#BTC incapable of getting a big pancake (無能なお餅)

In this small timeframe of BTC, I wouldn't know which altcoin it is.
Recently, pay attention to 102443.81. If it doesn't return within two days, no matter how it rebounds, it will still be a 3-sell after 5 points of central oscillation.
I originally planned to stay up late to see if I should buy the dip after the new low, but I have now given up on this plan. I'll wait for a 5-minute 2 to buy before deciding~

I just finished milking Ether tonight, and it started to perform immediately. Let's see if the weekly K closing can stabilize tomorrow.
Currently, it is still a normal small-scale rebound, and whether it is a reversal will continue to be observed.