The price of Cardano (ADA) struggling below the key resistance level of $0.70 has become a reflection of the current wait-and-see sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.
After experiencing a significant dumping in mid-October, ADA has been consolidating within a narrow range, neither able to break through the upper resistance nor completely losing its defensive capability. As of October 20, data from the Gate platform shows that, ADA price Still hovering around $0.66.
On-chain data reveals a contradictory phenomenon: although the capital inflow indicator has risen to a three-month high, suggesting that funds are being positioned at low levels, the continuous selling by Whales has become the biggest obstacle to suppressing the price rebound.
01 Whale dumping: The game between short-term pressure and capital inflow
The market has just experienced a large-scale dumping led by Whales, which undoubtedly gives Cardano The short-term trend is shadowed.
In the past week, Whales have sold approximately 350 million ADA in total, and this large-scale dumping has significantly deepened the downward pressure on the market. This figure is astonishing, clearly demonstrating the cautious attitude of large holders in the current market environment.
More detailed data shows that addresses holding 10 million to 100 million ADA have sold approximately 180 million ADA recently, worth over 120 million dollars.
This scale of dumping not only reflects the whales’ locking in of short-term profits but can also be seen as an early warning signal of potential further declines in the market.
The selling behavior of whales is not an isolated event. It stands in stark contrast to another key indicator in the Cardano ecosystem - the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has risen to a three-month high of 0.15.
This indicator measures the intensity of capital inflows and outflows in the market, and an increase in value usually indicates that capital is actively flowing into the asset.
02 Key Technical Levels: The Tug of War Between Support and Resistance
From a technical analysis perspective, Cardano is in a critical zone, with each price level telling the story of the fierce battle between bulls and bears.
The range of 0.65 to 0.66 USD has become a temporary lifeline for ADA, and this support area has been tested multiple times over the past few months. Each time the price falls back to this area, it encounters strong resistance from the bulls, triggering a rebound.
However, the resistance above is equally obvious. The $0.70 level has transformed from previous support into strong resistance, causing every attempt of ADA to rebound to encounter selling pressure in this area.
The repeated contesting near key positions has created an increasingly converging price range, indicating that the upcoming breakout may determine the mid-term trend of Cardano.
The short-term price pattern is also conveying similar information. On the 4-hour chart, ADA is forming a "descending wedge" pattern, which is often regarded as a potential reversal signal.
If ADA can break through $0.70 with strong trading volume, it may confirm this bullish pattern and open up space for a rebound towards the $0.75 to $0.78 area.
03 Market Catalysts: Potential Driving Forces and Risk Factors
In addition to technical factors, Cardano’s future price movement will also be profoundly influenced by several fundamental and event-driven factors.
A potential positive catalyst comes from the ETF space. Market participants are closely watching the expected decision on the Grayscale ADA ETF to be made on October 23. Although Polymarket data shows that its approval probability has dropped from 87% to 75%, if approved, it is likely to become a strong catalyst for ADA’s rise.
At the same time, the development of the Cardano network itself also provides some optimistic reasons. Despite the poor price performance, the network is still making steady progress in terms of technical upgrades and ecological expansion.
In May 2025, the Cardano node will be upgraded to v.10.4.1, introducing the UTXO-HD feature to optimize transaction processing efficiency.
What is even more noteworthy is that through the simulation of Leios technology, the Cardano network’s transaction processing capability has reached 1000 transactions per second (TPS), a figure that gives it the foundational capability to support large-scale DeFi and NFT applications.
However, the risk factors cannot be ignored. Regulatory uncertainty remains the Damocles sword hanging over Cardano, and the SEC may still classify ADA as a security, thereby triggering legal risks.
In addition, the total locked value (TVL) on the Cardano chain accounts for only 0.3% of the total DeFi market, and this ecological shortcoming also limits its value capture capability.
04 Future Trend: Consensus Amid Divergence
In the face of the current market environment, analysts provide different perspectives on the future trend of Cardano, but there is a clear consensus on key points.
In the short term, market attention is focused on the validity of the support area between 0.60 and 0.66 dollars. If this support holds and ADA can regain the 0.70 dollar level, it may initiate a rebound towards the 0.75 to 0.80 dollar area.
In the medium to long term, the technical pattern provides a broader space for imagination. ADA Price Trend It shows that it has been consolidating within a long-term "symmetrical triangle" pattern, which has been built for many years, and is currently approaching its apex.
If ADA can decisively break through the descending resistance line of the triangle, it may trigger a strong rally towards $10, with a potential increase of up to 1500%.
However, if the current support is lost, the situation may be entirely different. A drop below $0.60 could lead ADA to further test $0.57, or even retest the key support area at $0.33.
This potential decline of about 46% reminds investors that while pursuing upward potential, they must also maintain a clear awareness of downside risks.
Future Outlook
Technical indicators and market sentiment have issued divergent signals: the RSI approaching the oversold zone suggests that downward momentum may weaken, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) rising to a three-month high indicates that funds are quietly positioning themselves.
All eyes are focused on the $0.65 support and $0.70 resistance. A decisive breakthrough of $0.70 could trigger a rebound towards $0.75 to $0.80; conversely, if it falls below $0.65, it may drop to $0.60 or even $0.57.
Meanwhile, the market is waiting for the decision on the Grayscale ADA ETF on October 23, which is likely to be a key catalyst for the next movement of Cardano.
