TD Cowen’s latest report, released on November 25, notes that the Bitcoin premium for Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is "approaching the lows seen during the 2021–2022 ‘crypto winter.’"
Despite this, the investment bank remains bullish on MicroStrategy, maintaining its "Buy" rating and a price target of $535.
01 Stock Performance: A Brutal November
November 2025 has been a tough stretch for MicroStrategy. The company’s stock suffered a sharp decline, hitting a 52-week low.
According to Google Finance, MicroStrategy shares have fallen nearly 60% over the past year and are down more than 40% year-to-date.
In October, the stock traded near $300, but by late November, it had dropped to around $170. This downturn has pushed MicroStrategy’s share price to levels not seen since the 2021–2022 crypto winter.
02 Bitcoin Premium: A Barometer of Market Sentiment
For MicroStrategy, the Bitcoin premium refers to the ratio of the price investors pay for its stock compared to the net value of its Bitcoin holdings.
When the stock price approaches the value of its Bitcoin holdings, the premium narrows. When investors view the company as a leveraged way to gain Bitcoin exposure, the premium widens.
TD Cowen’s updated charts show this metric steadily compressing to levels last seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022.
TD Cowen Managing Director Lance Vitanza noted in a Monday report that MicroStrategy has neither issued any shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program nor purchased additional Bitcoin. This detail has prompted the market to refocus on where the premium currently stands.
03 MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy: Holding Firm
Despite poor stock performance, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin investments remain profitable.
According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET, MicroStrategy acquired its Bitcoin at an average price of $74,430.
With Bitcoin trading around $86,000, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are still up nearly 16%.
On November 17, MicroStrategy announced it had purchased 8,178 Bitcoins for $835.6 million.
This acquisition brought its total holdings to 649,870 Bitcoins, valued at nearly $56 billion.
Chairman Michael Saylor reaffirmed his commitment on X, declaring he "won’t back down."
04 MSCI Index Risk: The Sword of Damocles
Beyond Bitcoin price volatility, MicroStrategy faces the potential risk of being removed from MSCI indexes.
TD Cowen’s report states, "We now expect that, in February next year, public Bitcoin treasury companies (PBTCs) like MicroStrategy will be removed from all MSCI indexes."
MSCI itself has proposed this move, with a formal decision expected in mid-January.
This could have serious consequences.
The report notes, "Removing MicroStrategy from MSCI indexes will trigger significant passive fund selling at a time when the stock is already depressed."
JPMorgan analysts share a similar view, estimating that if MSCI removes MicroStrategy from its indexes, the company could face outflows of about $2.8 billion. If other index providers follow suit, outflows could reach another $8.8 billion.
05 Opportunity Amid Crisis: TD Cowen’s Bullish Case
Despite these concerns, TD Cowen maintains its Buy rating and $535 price target for MicroStrategy—about 200% above the current share price of roughly $180.
In a detailed report released Monday, Vitanza and colleague Jonnathan Navarrete wrote:
"We have not changed our baseline expectations for Bitcoin’s price and continue to project that MicroStrategy will hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal 2027."
They added, "We therefore model the value of Bitcoin holdings at over $185 billion by December 2027, which translates to an intrinsic value of about $540 per share. Our $535 price target continues to reflect a 0% premium to the projected intrinsic value per share in December 2027."
They also outlined their rationale for MicroStrategy’s long-term outlook: "A bias toward MicroStrategy is a bias toward Bitcoin. We expect MicroStrategy to outperform if Bitcoin rebounds."
06 Market Perspective: Digital Asset Treasuries Face Broader Inflow Slowdown
Part of MicroStrategy’s challenge stems from a wider slowdown in inflows to digital asset treasuries (DATs).
According to data aggregator DefiLlama, after $20 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, DAT inflows began to slow in October.
DAT inflows dropped from nearly $11 billion in September to about $2 billion in October—an 80% decline.
November saw further weakening. As of Monday, DAT inflows for the month were just over $500 million, down 75% from October.
07 Bitcoin’s Recent Performance: Signs of Recovery
Amid widespread market challenges, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery.
According to Gate data, as of November 25, Bitcoin was trading at $87,829.71, up 0.49% in the past 24 hours.
This rebound aligns with a broader recovery in the crypto market, with many major tokens posting gains over the same period.
Market participants are watching closely to see whether Bitcoin can sustain this momentum—and whether it might ease some of the pressure on MicroStrategy.
Outlook
Over a five-year window, MicroStrategy has surged more than 500%, outperforming Apple’s 130% gain and Microsoft’s roughly 120% increase. Even over a shorter two-year period, MicroStrategy’s stock rose 226%, beating Apple’s 43% and Microsoft’s 25%.
In the long run, MicroStrategy’s performance has validated its Bitcoin strategy. Now, with the premium narrowing and the share price dropping, a unique entry opportunity may be emerging for investors who believe in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
