Gate Options Underlying Weekly Trend Review
| Currency | Weekly Increase | Transaction amount last week (September 8 - September 14) | Transaction amount this week (September 15 - September 21) | Trading Volume Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 0.80% | $311 B | $296.7 B | -4.50% |
| ETH | 6.60% | $246 B | $222.3 B | -9.60% |
| ADA | -3.86% | $10.8 B | $10.5 B | -2.80% |
| DOGE | −11.50% | $33.6 B | $27.1 B | -19.30% |
| LTC | −3.50% | $4.8 B | $4 B | -17% |
| SOL | −3.90% | $66.7 B | $53.1 B | -20.40% |
| TON | −6.30% | $1.1 B | $1.03 B | -6.40% |
| XRP | 4.90% | $38 B | $36.4 B | -4.20% |
Note: The trading volume is the weekly trading volume of the entire market SPOT. The overall 7-day average daily trading volume trend of the SPOT market is shown in the figure below, with a significant decline this week.
BTC oscillates around the 60-day moving average.
- The current price is oscillating in the range of approximately $114,000–$116,500, with several small breakouts but failing to establish a strong position for the long term. Recently, the price briefly returned above the 60-day moving average before dipping back below it. In the future, there may be oscillation and consolidation around the 60-day moving average, so attention can be paid to the overall trend direction of the 60-day moving average.
- The resistance observation point is around $117,200 (recent high), with potential selling pressure in the range of $118,500–$119,300 above.
- The support level is seen around $114,500–$115,000 as the primary support. If it fails to hold, then attention should be paid to the stronger support range of about $110,000–$112,000.
ETH fell sharply on Monday, facing pressure from technical indicators.
- ETH has significantly declined today, falling below $4,400, with a low near $4,200, putting short-term trends under pressure.
- The key support level of $4,200–$4,300 has been tested, and if it continues to fail, it may further retreat to the $4,000–$4,100 range.
- The resistance above has moved down to $4,400–$4,500. If it cannot quickly recover in the short term, it will maintain a weak oscillation pattern.
Options Main Data
Implied volatility aspect
The BTC 7-day Options IV quickly rose from 33% to 36%, and the implied volatility trends of options with different expiration dates are as follows:
ETH 7 Date Options IV Index has risen slightly from around 60% near recent lows; this week, the implied volatility situation for ETH options with different expiration dates is as follows:
Options Sentiment Indicator
The PCR (Put/Call Ratio) of options positions refers to the ratio of the open interest of put options to the open interest of call options. The PCR is often used to gauge investors’ sentiment and expectations regarding the market.
The PCR (Put/Call Ratio) of options transactions refers to the ratio of the trading volume of put options to the trading volume of call options. PCR is commonly used to gauge investor sentiment and expectations regarding the market. Specifically, when PCR is greater than 1, it means that the trading volume of put options is greater than that of call options, which may reflect a pessimistic sentiment among option buyers regarding market trends, indicating that the price of the underlying asset may decline. Conversely, when PCR is less than 1, it means that the trading volume of call options is greater than that of put options, which may reflect an optimistic sentiment among option buyers regarding market trends, indicating that the price of the underlying asset may rise.
As of Monday, September 22, the BTC Options PCR (Put/Call Ratio) has remained above 1 for two weeks, indicating a rise in bearish sentiment. The ETH PCR indicator has also seen a significant increase, suggesting a rise in bearish sentiment.
Strategy Weekly Review and Recommendations:
Strategy recommendations applicable to different market conditions
| Strong oscillation | Sell Put / Bull Put Spread | The main focus is on collecting premiums, and extreme downside risk must be noted. |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate increase | Covered Call | Limited but stable profits, underperforming compared to bullish holders. |
| Expected consolidation | Straddle Strategy (Put + Call) | Receive bi-directional premium, suitable for low volatility environment |
| Expected pullback | Bear Market Call Spread / Sell Call | Low cost but high directional risk |
Market Analysis: Rebound Under Pressure, Focus on Moderate Defense
Recently Bitcoin price Consolidating in the range of $115,000–$116,500, but failed to break upward, the current price has fallen back to around $113,000, indicating a weakening short-term upward momentum;
From a technical perspective, BTC is still near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, the RSI indicator shows no obvious overbought signals, and the implied volatility (IV) remains in a neutral range;
The current support level is in the range of $112,000–$113,000. If it breaks below this area, it may further pull back to around $110,000.
Strategy Recommendations:
Bear Call Spread 示例
- Sell Call Options (Short Call): Strike Price $115,000, collect premium of approximately $1,050
- Buy Call Options: Strike Price $118,000, Premium Payment about $500
- Net premium income: approximately $550
Overview of Policy Events and Market Impact
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has simplified the listing rules for spot cryptocurrency ETFs.
On September 18, 2025, the SEC approved new rules that simplified the listing process for spot cryptocurrency ETFs, which is expected to accelerate the launch of ETFs for crypto assets such as Solana (SOL) and XRP.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 4.00%–4.25%. This was mainly due to signs of a weak labor market, including poor employment data for August and an increase in unemployment claims.
The interest rate cut alleviated liquidity pressure, and market sentiment turned positive, with BTC quickly rising to $117,200 on the day, briefly breaking through $117,800 to reach a new high for the phase; ETH also strengthened simultaneously, driving mainstream altcoins to rally.
Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
On September 19, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, but unexpectedly voted in favor of a rate hike and announced plans to reduce its holdings of ETFs and REITs, which led to a strong market reaction.
The Japanese yen strengthened, causing a temporary pressure on risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific market, leading to high-level fluctuations in BTC; some funds flowed into safe-haven assets (gold, US dollar), and short-term volatility in the crypto market intensified.
