Against a backdrop of shifting macroeconomic policies and ongoing liquidity injections, Bitcoin is undergoing a critical revaluation. According to the latest report from Tiger Research, the team has set a target price of $185,500 for Q1 2026—a nearly 100% potential upside from the market price at the time of publication (around $96,000).
Tiger Research’s analytical framework suggests that this forecast is far from speculative. Instead, it’s rooted in their proprietary Tiger Valuation Methodology, which combines a neutral baseline valuation of $145,000 with a +25% macro adjustment factor.
The market structure is experiencing a fundamental transformation. The traditional four-year halving cycle effect is waning, while clear signals from fiscal policy, monetary policy, and regulatory developments are emerging as more powerful market drivers.
01 Core Forecast: Valuation Model and Key Price Levels
In mid-January 2026, leading Asian Web3 research institution Tiger Research released its latest Bitcoin valuation report. The core conclusion: under a favorable macro policy environment and structural liquidity expansion, Bitcoin’s target price for Q1 2026 is set at $185,500.
This target is not a simple linear extrapolation. Tiger Research uses its proprietary Tiger Valuation Methodology to arrive at this figure. The model first establishes a "neutral valuation" based on on-chain fundamentals and long-term network development trends, which in this report is $145,000.
Analysts then apply a +25% macro adjustment factor to reflect their expectation of a positive shift in the global financial environment, ultimately arriving at the $185,500 forecast.
Although this target is lower than in the previous report (with the macro factor reduced from +35% to +25%), the report emphasizes that this should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Instead, it reflects a cautious view on slowing institutional inflows and geopolitical uncertainties. The model itself still points to a strong bullish outlook.
The report also provides a clear technical analysis framework: $84,000 is identified as a solid on-chain support level, having withstood buying pressure during the market correction in November 2025. Meanwhile, $98,000 marks the average cost basis for short-term holders and serves as the key resistance level that needs to be surpassed.
02 Macro Drivers: Rate-Cut Cycle and Liquidity Landscape
The primary force supporting this optimistic outlook comes from the changing global macroeconomic landscape. The report notes that Bitcoin’s macro environment remains robust, largely due to the onset of a rate-cutting cycle led by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
Data show that from September to December 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered rates three times by 25 basis points each, bringing the benchmark rate range down to 3.50%–3.75%. The market expects this accommodative monetary stance to continue into 2026.
Tiger Research Senior Analyst Ryan Yoon explained in an interview, "When the market anticipates quasi-quantitative easing, Bitcoin tends to react in advance. Given Bitcoin’s high sensitivity to liquidity, it’s expected to lead the market trend." This "quasi-quantitative easing" refers not only to central bank monetary policy but also to fiscal measures that inject liquidity and drive down real borrowing costs.
More important than the interest rate itself is the total amount of system liquidity. The report highlights that global M2 money supply hit an all-time high in Q4 2024 and continues to expand.
Historical patterns show that the Bitcoin price often leads the liquidity cycle, typically beginning to rise before M2 peaks. The current environment of abundant and expanding liquidity is seen as the key driver of Bitcoin’s medium- to long-term upside potential. Analysts believe that if traditional equity markets become overvalued, some capital may flow into alternative assets like Bitcoin.
03 Policy Catalyst: Can the "CLARITY Act" Open Pandora’s Box?
Beyond macro liquidity, a clear regulatory framework is viewed as a "policy catalyst" capable of triggering the next wave of institutional capital. The report positions the US Congress’s ongoing "CLARITY Act" as a pivotal development.
At its core, the Act clarifies regulatory authority: it delineates the jurisdictional boundaries between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets, assigning primary oversight of digital commodity spot markets to the CFTC. This provides exchanges and brokers with clear legal expectations for compliant operations.
Even more groundbreaking, the Act allows banks to offer digital asset custody and staking services. If enacted, this provision would fundamentally remove a major barrier preventing large traditional financial institutions from entering the crypto market.
Peter Chung, Head of Research at Presto Research, points out that with the US midterm elections approaching in November 2026, lawmakers are motivated to deliver crypto-friendly legislative outcomes. The market narrative is evolving, and the progress of the CLARITY Act will shape the industry’s long-term trajectory.
The report argues that if the Act passes, it could attract major banks and traditional asset managers—previously on the sidelines—to formally enter the space, bringing in unprecedented levels of capital.
04 Market Reality: Short-Term Institutional Outflows and Long-Term Commitment
Despite positive macro and policy signals, short-term market flows present a more complex picture. The report acknowledges that recent market momentum has weakened, with one direct cause being a temporary pullback by institutional investors.
Data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025—the largest monthly outflows since these products launched. This partially explains why Bitcoin’s price retraced about 12% from its October 2025 peak.
On the other hand, long-term strategic buyers—particularly corporations—continue to accumulate. The most notable example is MicroStrategy, which now holds over 680,000 Bitcoins, accounting for about 3.2% of total circulating supply. Publicly traded companies like Metaplanet and Mara are following similar accumulation strategies.
This seemingly contradictory phenomenon reveals a layered market: some ETF investors may be taking profits or rebalancing short-term risk, while other capital views Bitcoin as a core tool for hedging currency depreciation and long-term asset allocation.
Tiger Research’s "Top 10 Crypto Market Shifts in 2026" report predicts this trend will persist, with institutional capital focusing primarily on assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that have gained mainstream financial acceptance. Market growth will concentrate on projects that meet institutional standards.
05 Investment Perspective: Market Structure and Risk in a New Cycle
Today’s market structure is markedly different from previous cycles. The report notes that the rising share of institutional and long-term capital reduces the likelihood of panic selling driven by retail investors. Recent market corrections have been more about gradual asset rebalancing than panic-driven crashes.
On-chain data supports this shift in sentiment. Key indicators like the MVRV-Z score and unrealized net profit/loss ratio have moved out of "undervalued" or "panic" zones and into "neutral" territory. This suggests the market has recovered from deep drawdowns, and further upside will require new fundamental narratives (such as regulatory breakthroughs) or macro drivers.
However, while investors may be drawn to the enticing $185,500 target, they must also recognize potential risks:
- Federal Reserve policy uncertainty: Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and the policy stance of his successor could introduce new variables.
- Geopolitical risk: Heightened global tensions could trigger widespread risk-off sentiment, impacting all risk assets—including cryptocurrencies.
- Technical resistance: Bitcoin must decisively break and hold above the critical $98,000 resistance level to open the path to higher targets.
For investors seeking opportunities on platforms like Gate, understanding these multi-layered—and at times contradictory—signals is essential. Investment strategies must go beyond historical cycle models and incorporate macro policy timelines, regulatory developments, and on-chain capital flows into a comprehensive analytical framework.
Outlook
As Bitcoin’s price on Gate hovers around $91,000, market analysts have already set their sights beyond the $98,000 resistance, looking toward the $145,000 baseline.
The global tide of M2 money supply is rising, while the CLARITY Act stands poised as a potential key to unlock the gateway between traditional finance and the crypto world.
Every tick on the Bitcoin price chart is more than just a reflection of trader sentiment—it’s a note in the complex symphony composed by macro policy rates, congressional legislative agendas, and global capital flows.
