Why are more and more people choosing to leave the Web3 industry recently?

Written by: Blockchain Knight

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked.” Using Buffett’s words to describe the current Crypto market is probably the best description. Recently, I have occasionally heard or seen some news about XXX “withdrawing from the circle”. These reports are less about complaints or grievances and instead reflect the current state of the industry.

As for why these people choose to leave the industry, I have roughly tracked a few main reasons.

First of all, the most common reason is that the bleak market in the past period of time or because of the changes brought about by the market, some people have to temporarily leave the industry to find a “new life”; Second, Web3 has been in some sort of unflattering “pathological” growth for the past year or two, with some value creators choosing to leave the space because they don’t see real value growth; In addition, there are some people who see the rise of AI and think that Web3 is a thing of the past, and they will pursue new blue ocean markets.

Of course, the reasons mentioned above show significant differences when refined to individuals, but none of these reasons can transition from local to global, as most people in the market still choose to remain on the sidelines or continue to build diligently, because this industry, which has developed for more than a decade, is not facing such a predicament for the first time.

It is only because some people who have left this industry may be a certain influential KOL, which seems to affect the mentality of many. However, I believe that this stage is the real test for Builders. Setting aside the superficial restlessness, we need to see more of the changes in the industry or the things that have not yet been changed. I will provide a brief overview from the following three aspects.

Has the Web3 industry moved from a blue ocean to a red ocean?

According to a research report released by the BTC financial services company River in March, currently only 4% of the global population holds BTC, with the highest proportion of BTC holders in the United States, where about 14% of people hold BTC. In terms of development stages, the current BTC adoption rate is comparable to that of the internet in 1990 or mobile social in 2005.

Through this simple data analysis, we can see that the adoption rate of digital assets, led by BTC, is still in its early stages, far from what is known as a red ocean market. Even from the perspective of industry influence, traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have just entered the arena. Just imagine, would they foolishly come in as the bag holders?

From a logical and data analysis perspective, we must acknowledge that if digital assets are the future direction of development or if Web3 is the intersection of the internet and AI, then the greatest possibility of this race has just moved from the starting point to the midpoint, and there is still a long way to go.

Is the Web3 market left with only exaggerated MEME narratives?

Of course, for the value creation in this industry, the most criticized aspect over the past year is the explosion of MEME, as MEME has attracted too much attention, and because of MEME, many people who entered this industry have experienced a cleansing, even losing confidence in the industry. However, as I mentioned in a previous Weekly, MEME is in the process of evolution, undergoing a bubble and needing a new revival growth, and this growth may bring value to the industry.

Secondly, we should not only focus on some superficial hot changes; builders are still building, and valuable projects are still seeking their breakthroughs. From the changes in the number of active developers over the past year, it can be seen that despite experiencing a decline, it remains at a relatively high level.

Although the market seems to have cooled down at the moment, lacking a major narrative like DeFi that had a breakthrough in the previous cycle, looking back at the past from the present is always calm and full of opportunities, while looking to the future from the present brings a bit less confidence. But isn’t this the law of development and change for anything?

Even looking back at the Web3 industry in 2018, it was still extremely bad, even dozens of times worse than now, but this did not hinder the subsequent explosion. We need time and patience to wait for the process of change from quantitative to qualitative.

Will the Web3 market continue to “fall endlessly”?

Finally, the question of price arises. More than 90% of people feel that this cycle is very different from previous ones and lacks much similarity, so many predictions that are like ‘carving a boat to seek a sword’ have turned into cannon fodder. However, if the concept of cycles remains valid, then we are likely still within this cycle, just without the crazy general rise of the past.

Recently, due to issues with GS, the US stock market plummeted, evaporating nearly $6.5 trillion in market value in just two days. All three major US indices recorded their largest two-day decline and largest weekly decline since March 2020, which also led to extreme conditions in the global financial markets. Whether this volatility can see a turnaround in the short term still requires cautious observation.

So, when BTC has already retraced nearly 30%, and the financial market is facing a once-in-several-years upheaval, can the entire Crypto market still remain unscathed? Perhaps this is a very difficult question to answer.

But our earliest economist, Fan Li, also known as the “God of Wealth,” has a classic saying worth savoring: “When prices rise to extremes, they will fall back; when prices fall to extremes, they will rise again; when the valuable is seen as worthless, the worthless is taken as precious.” Perhaps we are now in a subtle moment of “viewing everything as worthless.”

Will BTC eventually reach 500,000 USD each? Seven years ago, saying BTC would reach 1 million yuan each sounded like a joke, but it seems like it’s not far off now. Living in the present, we must face reality, but when facing the future, we should remain cautiously optimistic. Always on the road, always building.