Eggs, new Bitcoin

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

At the border between the United States and Mexico, law enforcement officers are accustomed to seizing drugs and illegal immigrants, but recently they have faced an unexpected new challenge - smuggling eggs.

According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Customs and Border Protection intercepted a truck in El Paso, Texas, which not only contained 29 kilograms of methamphetamine but also had a large quantity of smuggled eggs cleverly hidden in the seats and tires.

This is no longer an isolated case. Since the beginning of this year, around 90 “egg smugglers” have been arrested in El Paso alone, and the number of smuggled egg cases intercepted at the U.S. border has increased by 36% compared to the same period last year, with the San Diego area seeing an increase of more than double.

In February this year, a shocking “egg heist” occurred in Pennsylvania, where approximately 100,000 eggs were stolen from a truck belonging to an egg supplier, with a total value exceeding $40,000. A few days later, another egg theft took place at a café in Seattle, where two male suspects stole 540 eggs.

Eggs, a daily food item on the dining table, have surprisingly become a popular smuggled item across borders alongside drugs. This reflects the insane surge in egg prices within the United States— in February of this year, the price of eggs in the U.S. increased by a staggering 58.8% compared to the previous year, with the average price for a dozen eggs approaching 8 dollars, and in some areas, it even skyrocketed to over 10 dollars. In Mexico, the same eggs cost only one-third of the price in the U.S.

Due to reduced supply, supermarkets and grocery stores in many parts of the United States have posted notices limiting the purchase of eggs, and high-priced eggs in some stores have quickly sold out. A chicken rental company in New Hampshire called “Rent the Chicken” has rapidly gained popularity, allowing customers to rent two hens for about $600 for six months to ensure a stable supply of eggs.

Eggs are becoming the new “Bitcoin” under the tariff war.

Avian influenza and dual policy impact

The root of this “egg crisis” can be traced back to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) at the end of 2024.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, more than 6 million laying hens in California have been forced to be culled to prevent the spread of the outbreak. Nationwide, avian influenza has almost affected all states, with Indiana and Ohio experiencing the most severe outbreaks.

A poultry farmer named John Parker expressed his heartbreak as he had to cull a total of 150,000 chickens, with the production line completely halted and it will take at least six months to return to normal.

In addition to avian influenza, the “cage-free” policies implemented by some states in the U.S. have also exacerbated supply shortages. Currently, ten densely populated states, including California, Massachusetts, and Washington, have passed laws requiring that eggs can only come from cage-free environments. Although this farming method is more humane, it is also more vulnerable to pandemic impacts. Agricultural analyst Brian Ernest pointed out: “Once these cage-free farms experience an outbreak, the speed of replenishing supplies will become extremely slow.”

At the same time, the demand for eggs in the United States has been continuously rising. The popularity of high-protein, low-carbohydrate diets, along with the emergence of chain restaurants serving breakfast all day, has driven an increase in egg consumption.

Under the dual pressure of supply and demand, the USDA predicts that the shortage of eggs may continue throughout 2025, with the specific recovery time depending on the control of avian influenza and the recovery speed of the poultry industry.

One of the largest egg producers in the United States, publicly listed egg company Cal-Maine Foods has seen its profits soar, with its stock price rising by about 50% over the past year.

The “tariff stick” has made matters worse

In the face of tight domestic egg supply, the U.S. government attempted to seek help from abroad. In March this year, the U.S. inquired with Denmark and other European countries about the possibility of exporting eggs, but was declined by multiple countries.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, over 1.6 million dozen eggs have been imported into the United States in the first two months of 2025. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins publicly stated that the government plans to import eggs from countries such as Turkey and South Korea to alleviate domestic shortages.

However, the “reciprocal tariff” policy implemented by the Trump administration has exacerbated this emergency measure. Egg-exporting countries such as Turkey and South Korea are now facing high tariffs, significantly increasing import costs. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has warned that this move is likely to lead to a short-term increase in U.S. egg prices. Financial analysts warn that retailers and suppliers are likely to pass these rising costs onto American consumers, who are already fatigued from dealing with high prices.

In the midst of the tariff war, eggs on the dining table have also been placed on the negotiation table of politicians.

Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Food Zulkipli Hasan stated that these eggs could become a tool for negotiating with the United States regarding the 32% “reciprocal” tariffs imposed on Indonesia. Indonesia has great potential in supplying eggs to countries affected by avian influenza, including the United States.

Eggs, new Bitcoin

Eggs in the United States have seemingly become a peculiar form of “hard currency.”

In the egg shortage-stricken Silicon Valley, a tech company employee joked, “We discuss how to change the world with AI during the day, yet we line up to buy a box of eggs, which are more valuable than the Bitcoin I hold.”

Bitcoin is highly sought after due to its scarcity (a total supply fixed at 21 million coins), while American eggs have also seen prices soar due to limited supply. The culling of millions of egg-laying hens due to avian influenza is akin to a “halving” event in the Bitcoin world, suddenly reducing market supply.

Interestingly, both eggs and Bitcoin have given rise to similar social phenomena.

In the world of Bitcoin, “arbitrage” is a well-known way to make money. Investors take advantage of price differences between different exchanges to buy and sell, profiting from the discrepancies. The most typical example is the so-called “Kimchi Premium”—the price of Bitcoin on Korean exchanges is consistently higher than the global average, sometimes reaching price differences of over 20%. Savvy traders will buy Bitcoin on international markets and then sell it at a higher price on Korean exchanges to profit from the spread. Although this arbitrage activity is theoretically simple, practical operation faces multiple obstacles such as regulation, capital flow restrictions, and trading fees.

Nowadays, the “egg smugglers” at the US-Mexico border are engaged in similar operations. They purchase eggs in Mexico for about 1.7 dollars per dozen and sell them in the US for 8 dollars or even higher after crossing the border, gaining over 400% profit. This “egg flipping” is akin to Bitcoin arbitrage, just replacing digital assets with physical goods.

Bitcoin has “miners” to mine, while hens are the new mining machines. Many American families have started to “mine eggs” in their backyards, and a Meta employee who raises chickens in their backyard to achieve “self-sufficiency in eggs” has been called a “real wealthy person” by colleagues.

Egg smugglers share similarities with early underground Bitcoin exchanges in that they both evade regulation and seek arbitrage opportunities arising from price discrepancies. The only difference is that the value of Bitcoin is built on consensus, while the value of eggs stems from the most basic survival needs.

When the price of a regular egg reaches 6 yuan, we can’t help but ask: In an era of persistent inflation, frequent black swan events, and disrupted supply chains, what will be the next “Bitcoin”? Will there be more everyday necessities that become new “hard currencies” due to supply shortages?

The answer may be affirmative; on April 9 at 12:01, the United States imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese products.

“As long as there is a 10% profit, it will be used everywhere; with 20%, it will become lively; with 50%, it will provoke active risk-taking; with 100%, it will make people disregard all laws; with 300%, it will make people fearless of crime, even the danger of being hanged.”

Driven by interests, the future of the US-Mexico border may also be filled with various Chinese goods.

This “egg crisis” may just be a microcosm of the new normal in the US and even the global economy.

A new storm is about to emerge, and everything has just begun.