Non-farm employment is too strong! Fed's spokesperson: The chances of a rate cut in June have significantly decreased, Goldman Sachs and Barclays have changed their tune to "wait for July."

Strong non-farm payrolls weighed on rate cut expectations, Nick Timiraos pointed out that Fed officials tend to wait and see, Goldman Sachs and Barclays both postpone their forecasts until July, and the Fed’s policy direction is still dependent on future data. (Synopsis: Bitwise predicts that the “four major US brokers” will open bitcoin ETFs at the end of the year, and the real bull market of national speculation is coming? (Background added: The United States owes Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea allies? Trump: I’m not sorry at all, they deserve China’s 145% tariffs) The stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report for April encouraged the U.S. stock and currency markets to rally, but at the same time cooled expectations that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in June. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed sounding board”, bluntly said that there is no signal that “interest rate cuts are needed” in the labor market, and officials may continue to wait and see until a clearer turn occurs. Extended reading: US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in April! Bitcoin approaches 98,000 magnesium, S&P 9 consecutive red hit a 20-year record Timiraos: Interest rate cut opportunities in June sharply reduced According to the US Department of Labor, non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, better than market expectations of 138,000, indicating that corporate recruitment activities are still resilient. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and the participation rate edged up to 62.6%. Although the data for February and March was revised downward by a total of 58,000 people, the overall trend has not weakened significantly. Wall Street Journal reporter Timiraos pointed out that to cut interest rates, it is necessary to see a significant increase in unemployment, but the April data does not show a general decline in job openings, which makes the Fed have no basis to turn before next week’s meeting, and it is very likely to stay on the sidelines, or even avoid any signal that it is ready to cut interest rates in June. Timiraos added on X that the unemployment rate in April, if rounded up, was actually 4.187%, up slightly from 4.152% in March, indicating that the overall level is still stable. He also stressed that in the past six months, the United States has created an average of 193,000 new jobs per month, supporting the vitality of the job market. The number of permanent unemployed people in April was 1.9 million, a new high in the current cycle, but only 1.1% of the private labor force, which has not yet constituted policy pressure. The 5.3% year-on-year increase in the weekly gross employment index is highly correlated with nominal GDP growth, indicating that economic activity remains expansionary. Even excluding government, education and health care, employment rose by 96,000 and 97,000 in March and April, rejecting some notions that the employment data is “glorified.” In addition, Timiraos observed that some people who had not sought work have begun to return to the workforce recently, a change that coincides with the Fed’s interest rate cut last fall, which may be that easing policy expectations are slowly translating into momentum in the real economy. Some Trump advisers have characterized prior job growth as being flattered by (“brittle” due to) government or acyclical health care + education hiring. This wasn’t the case in March + April. Hiring less government, education, health services was +96K and +97K, respectively. pic.twitter.com/VFKZDZuYSn — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) May 2, 2025 June rate cut chance plummets to 34% The report also sharply lowered market sentiment that had been betting on a June rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in June plummeted to 34% from 75% last week. Goldman Sachs and Barclays also postponed their first rate cut estimates to July. Goldman Sachs, Barclays: Estimated rate cut postponed to July After the release of the strong non-farm payrolls data, Goldman Sachs and Barclays revised their forecasts in tandem, postponing the Fed’s first rate cut from June to July. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the April employment data showed that basic employment growth remained stable at 149,000 per month, reflecting that economic activity has not yet slowed significantly, and the Fed has no reason to urgently turn. The bank still expects three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, in July, September and December. Barclays argues that postponing until the end of July allows policymakers to observe more labor market changes and wait for tariff and fiscal policy uncertainties to be clarified before making decisions. Both institutions stressed that if the follow-up data is still strong, the timing of the interest rate cut may be further delayed. Trump slammed Fed interest rate cut again Although the rate cut is expected to subside, Trump, who continues to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, still quickly posted on the Truth Social platform declaring that “there is no inflation, the Fed should cut interest rates!” Gasoline prices just fell below $1.98 a gallon, a multi-year low, and groceries (and eggs!). Prices are down, energy prices are down, mortgage rates are down, jobs are strong, and there’s more good news as billions of dollars pour in through tariffs. Like I said, we’re just in the transition phase right now, we’re just getting started! Consumers have been waiting for years to finally see prices fall. Now there is no inflation, the Fed should cut interest rates! The process of cutting interest rates needs more data April non-farm payrolls report is the last labor market indicator before the Fed’s May meeting, data shows that the US economy has not stalled significantly, and there is a lack of pressure to force the central bank to cut interest rates in the short term. Next, the market will pay attention to price data such as CPI and PCE, as well as Fed officials’ comments to see if July is really the starting point for a policy shift. Under the tug-of-war between inflation and employment, expectations of interest rate cuts have not been dashed, but they have become more cautious. Related reports Fed’s latest Beige Book analysis: corporate concerns escalate, market and policy pressures intensify, and the big positive for Bitcoin is coming? U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Report Released 5/5 ago The U.S. economy exploded "GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, but core inflation heated up, is it really a recession or just a technical distortion? 〈Non-farm employment is too strong! Fed microphone: The opportunity to cut interest rates in June is greatly reduced, Goldman Sachs and Barclays changed their words “to wait for July” This article was first published in BlockTempo’s “Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Blockchain News Media”.