Is Bitcoin experiencing a "dump at a high"?

Yesterday, my fren circle and various groups were filled with messages celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day. Coincidentally, Bitcoin has once again set a new historical high of 110,000 USD in the past couple of days.

In this atmosphere, everyone excitedly celebrates this holiday belonging to Bitcoin: 15 years ago, on that day, a programmer bought two pizzas with 10,000 Bitcoins.

The historical significance of this matter goes without saying, as it symbolically endows Bitcoin with intrinsic value.

However, especially in recent years, whenever everyone celebrates this day, the conversation often revolves around what the situation would be like if this programmer had kept all (or part) of these Bitcoins until today.

I opened the historical trend of Bitcoin on Coingecko, and the starting point of the data is April 28, 2013, when the price of Bitcoin was $135.

I think the price is still high at this time, so I tried tradingview again. The records here are quite detailed, and I found the time when Bitcoin first reached 1 dollar, which was around February 1, 2011.

Why do I want to find the time when Bitcoin first reached 1 dollar?

Because Bitcoin has achieved a 100,000-fold increase from $1 to $100,000. If an ordinary person is fortunate enough to gain a 100,000-fold return from an investment during their lifetime, even if their initial investment is not large, this gain is enough to enable them to achieve financial freedom and make a certain level of social mobility from an ordinary person.

Time rewinds back to 2011, for our generation, whether we were studying or already working, taking out 100 RMB from our usual pocket money or salary to invest shouldn’t have been a difficult thing, right?

If that 100 yuan had been used to buy Bitcoin back then, its value today would be 10 million RMB. This asset, even in first-tier cities, can actually allow one to live a relaxed and carefree life as long as they do not overly pursue a luxurious lifestyle.

But the difficult part is that even if we really bought Bitcoin with this 100 yuan back then, how many of us could have held onto it until today without making any moves in between? How many people could completely ignore the ups and downs that Bitcoin experienced during this time, even plummeting to zero?

To block out all these distractions, I think the most essential points are actually two:

First, believe that its future holds value.

The second is to completely abandon the mindset of trading in waves.

For the vast majority of people still exploring the crypto ecosystem today, I estimate that the first point is relatively easy to grasp to some extent—after being immersed in this ecosystem for so many years, they have more or less established a certain understanding of Bitcoin in their hearts.

The difficult part is the second point; otherwise, we wouldn’t be tempted to pay attention to the market every now and then, wanting to check the coin price. During the process of making trades, the easiest pitfall to fall into is once you sell, it becomes very difficult to buy back, ultimately causing you to completely miss this wealth express.

Therefore, long-term holding of Bitcoin is a more critical test for investors.

Recently, I have been occasionally coming across videos by Lin Yuan. He often mentions in his videos that he buys stocks for the long term and does not sell. However, sometimes he speaks imprecisely; fortunately, I watch his videos quite often and can understand his words in context. What he means by not selling in his videos is that he holds onto the stocks he is optimistic about without selling, rather than implying that he won’t sell any stock he purchases.

In the past investment cases of Linyuan, Darentang is a relatively valuable case for reference.

Lin Yuan bought Darentang to buy S shares listed in Singapore. Compared to A-shares, S shares are cheaper and have more generous dividends. He bought the stock heavily in 2013. However, the stock price of Darentang’s S shares was almost unchanged in the 10 years from 2012 to 2022.

In this situation, if it were an ordinary investor, they would have probably lost patience a long time ago and cleared out their stocks. If they had done that, they would have definitely missed the upcoming surge of Darentang: from 2022 to 2025, Darentang entered a skyrocketing mode, with its stock price soaring 10 times over the three years.

In the case of Darentang, it achieved a 10-fold increase in 13 years.

In the case of Bitcoin, it achieved a 100,000 times increase, but it also took 14 years.

So what I want to say is that for ordinary investors, if you really want to achieve epic wealth, you must be friends with time, whether investing in traditional investment fields or in the crypto ecosystem.

The dream of getting rich overnight and the obsession with swing trading are the biggest enemies for ordinary people in achieving wealth advancement.

Thinking about it this way, I am increasingly inclined to hold Bitcoin and Ethereum for the long term. Unless the market is extremely crazy, I will try not to engage in so-called “selling high” even when the market is good.