Bitcoin falls below $105,000, is the bull gone or is it consolidating?

Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

On May 30, the last day of the Bitcoin 2025 conference, the market once again confirmed the curse of a significant drop during conferences.

Bitcoin fell below $105,000 this morning, reaching a low of $104,600. Ethereum also dropped from a high of $2,788 to a low of $2,557. The altcoin market has generally experienced a correction, with some altcoins like BERA even hitting all-time lows.

In the contract market, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation in the past hour was 330 million USD, of which long positions accounted for 321 million USD and short positions accounted for 7.89 million USD.

In terms of the macro market, cryptocurrency stocks in the US, including COIN and MSTR, both fell after hours. Regarding the Fed’s interest rate cuts, there has been a constant fluctuation. Fed’s Daly stated on Thursday that although policymakers may still cut rates twice this year, the current interest rates should remain stable to ensure that the inflation rate can reach the Fed’s target of 2%. Daly emphasized that as long as the inflation rate is above the target and there is uncertainty, inflation will remain the focus of attention due to the robust labor market conditions. In addition, the US trade court’s ruling to block Trump’s tariff measures was overturned by the appeals court on Thursday, highlighting the uncertainty in trade policy, which many businesses and the Fed find concerning.

Is this pullback a healthy short-term correction or are we about to enter a long-term consolidation and fluctuation again? Let’s hear the market views from experts and analysts.

Placeholder Partner: A slight market correction does not mean the end of the trend, and the risk structure remains good.

Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, posted on social media, “Don’t mistake a small pullback for the end of the market, the overall risk/reward structure remains good.”

Matrixport: Contract data shows that traders may be closing positions to take profits.

According to the latest report released by Matrixport (analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research), the open interest in futures has surged significantly since the low in April. Although Solana has taken a back seat due to the cooling of meme coins and the Pump.fun craze, Bitcoin’s open interest has shown significant growth. This surge may reflect a shift in market risk appetite, especially following Trump’s recent reversal of tariff policies. Bitcoin continues to play a dual role of “risk appetite” and “safe haven,” increasingly aligning with the narrative of “digital gold.”

However, the open interest currently seems to be stabilizing, which may confirm our view that traders are starting to take profits and plan to re-enter at lower levels.

Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Enters Healthy Consolidation Phase, Short-term Holders Taking Profits May Trigger Selling Pressure

Bitfinex Alpha reported on May 26 that after hitting an all-time high in January, Bitcoin experienced a 32% pullback, but subsequently rebounded strongly by over 50%, reaching a new high of $111,880, and has now entered a healthy consolidation phase. Strong ETF inflows, a surge in spot market participation, and positive growth in “realized net capital” have driven structural buying in the market rather than excessive speculation. Despite a decline in macro risk appetite, such as reports that the U.S. may impose a 50% tariff on European imports, Bitcoin has remained resilient—showing no significant decline during the deleveraging and profit-taking process.

This resilience is drawing market attention to Bitcoin evolving into a “macro-sensitive, belief-driven asset,” with its trading behavior now more related to global liquidity trends rather than retail sentiment. Notably, Japan’s Metaplanet company has increased its holdings of Bitcoin valued at $104 million, and the state of Michigan in the U.S. has proposed legislation favorable to crypto assets, further validating the growing support for digital assets from institutional and policy levels.

Looking ahead, whether Bitcoin can continue to consolidate above its short-term holding cost base (around $95, 000) will be key. Over the past month, short-term holders have realized more than $11.4 billion in profits, so there may be some selling pressure in the near term, but structural demand remains. The strength of ETF buying, low volatility, and premium signals in the cash market all suggest that the market is maturing and that further gains are likely to follow once the macro environment is clear. For now, the next few weeks will determine whether Bitcoin’s breakout is a phased top or a prelude to a stronger rally in Q3.

Arthur Hayes: Ethereum price is expected to double to $5000 this year

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that the price of Ethereum is expected to reach $4000-5000 this year. Hayes believes that Ethereum is currently the “least popular Layer 1 public chain,” but during a market cycle transition, this could actually present an investment opportunity.

CryptoQuant Analyst: BTC Short-term Holders Have Realized Profits at Local Peaks but Have Not Yet Reached Previous Bull Market Highs

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on social media that the STH SOPR (30-day moving average), which measures the average realized profit and loss of short-term investors when spending tokens on-chain, has recently reached a local high, indicating that the profits realized by short-term holders have significantly increased.

Nevertheless, the market demand for tokens remains strong, not affecting the current upward trend. This indicator has not yet reached the level of euphoria seen at previous significant price peaks.