What favourable information will allow BTC to break the 100,000 USD mark again? How high can it rise this time?

Deng Tong, Golden Finance

The bull returns, hurry back!

Overnight, the cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply, with Bitcoin rising again to over $100,000, peaking at over $103,000, while Ethereum even achieved an increase of over 20%. The cryptocurrency market is in great shape. As of the time of writing, BTC has risen by 4.7%, reported at $102,804. Moreover, many other mainstream coins have also achieved double-digit increases.

What favorable factors are driving the rapid recovery of the cryptocurrency market? How much can this round of market rise reach?

1. Several States in the U.S. May Initiate a Cryptocurrency Reserve Competition

On May 6, the Governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, announced on social media that New Hampshire would pass a bill approved by the state Senate and House of Representatives, allowing the state to “invest in cryptocurrencies and precious metals.” House Bill 302 was introduced in New Hampshire earlier this January, allowing the state treasury to invest in cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of over $500 billion. “The state of ‘Live Free or Die’ is leading the future development of commerce and digital assets,” stated a New Hampshire Republican in a post on X on May 6. With the signing of this bill, New Hampshire becomes the first state in the U.S. to consider establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve through legislation, including an initiative to collaborate with the federal government.

Subsequently, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs signed a bill on May 7 that allows the state to retain unclaimed cryptocurrencies for at least three years and deposit them into the “Bitcoin and Digital Asset Reserve Fund.” House Bill 2749 allows Arizona to claim abandoned digital assets if there has been no response to any communication within three years. The state’s custodians can stake these cryptocurrencies to earn rewards or receive airdrops.

Meanwhile, on the same day, the Texas House committee passed a Republican-backed bill by a vote of 9 to 4, aimed at establishing a Bitcoin reserve. The bill now only needs to be approved by a full vote of the House before being sent to Governor Greg Abbott’s desk.

The Digital Asset Investment Act of North Carolina will authorize the state treasurer to invest 5% of any designated funds in “qualified digital assets.” The bill passed its second reading in the House on April 30 with a vote of 71 in favor and 44 against, and has been submitted to the Senate for review. The bill will also “examine the feasibility of allowing members of state retirement income plans to make such investments (through cryptocurrency ETPs)” and study the establishment of a state reserve fund to hold seized or forfeited cryptocurrencies.

Ishmael Green, a partner at Diaz Reus law firm, stated that he expects about six states to follow New Hampshire’s lead in the short to medium term - “because states are seeking to hedge against inflation in addition to protecting their balance sheets.”

David Lawant, the research director at FalconX, stated that he also expects at least several more states to enact such laws within the next 6 to 12 months.

For more content, see “What are the Highlights of the New Hampshire Bitcoin Reserve Bill? Will it Spark Imitation in Other States?”

“Which States Will Follow After New Hampshire Wins the Cryptocurrency Reserve Race?”

2. The United States and the United Kingdom Reach a Trade Agreement

The United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade agreement on May 8 (Thursday), which is the first formal trade accord reached by President Trump since the initiation of the global reciprocal tariff policy. Trump called this agreement a “historic breakthrough,” while UK Prime Minister Starmer stated that reaching a consensus on the anniversary of World War II’s victory is a “historic day.”

According to Trump, the UK will open its market to several agricultural products from the US, including American beef, ethanol, and “almost all the products produced by our farmers,” with expected export values involving “tens of billions of dollars.”

In the UK, Starmer pointed out that the agreement is “extremely important” for the UK’s automotive and steel industries. According to the UK Prime Minister’s Office (Downing Street), the import tariff on UK cars from the US will be reduced from the original 25% to 10%. Additionally, the US will also relax the tariff measures on UK steel and aluminum products.

Despite the fact that the terms of the agreement are yet to be further defined, the Trump administration is eager to announce this preliminary outcome, drawing the attention of the market. Capital Economics analyst Paul Ashworth noted: “This reflects the Trump administration’s increasing urgency to seek room for compromise before the impact of tariff measures on economic growth and inflation.”

Trump denied exaggerating the importance of the agreement, stating that it is “the best outcome that can be achieved at the moment.”

After Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that enhancing market access for American exporters would bring in billions of dollars in revenue. Ross said in the Oval Office: “They agreed to open the market, which will create $5 billion in opportunities for American exporters.” “We still have a 10% tariff, which will bring $6 billion in revenue to the U.S.” Ross indicated that the agreement would not pressure the UK economy, and British workers would not face negative impacts from the deal. He added that the agreement means the UK can export 100,000 cars to the U.S., “paying only a 10% tariff.”

As a direct result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “trade agreement” with the UK, the price of Bitcoin surged above $100,000, the Dow Jones index rose by 500 points, and the S&P 500 index increased by 1.47%.

Trump wrote in a Truth Social post: “There are many other deals in serious negotiation stages!”

The agreement between the US and the UK will mark a easing of global trade tensions, thereby boosting risk appetite in various markets including cryptocurrencies.

3. The vote on the US dollar stablecoin bill is imminent, and many giants are entering the stablecoin market.

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill this Thursday local time (Friday Beijing time). The bill requires that stablecoins be fully backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars and short-term government bonds. Therefore, the bill needs 60 votes to pass, requiring support from Democratic senators. Despite encountering changes on the eve of the vote, nine Democratic senators announced they would withdraw their support. However, the likelihood of the bill passing is high. This is because USD stablecoins are expected to be one of the main buyers of U.S. government bonds in the future, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has stated that the demand for digital assets will reach as high as $2 trillion. The CEO of Coinbase also indicated that the GENIUS bill may ultimately approach presidential signing with bipartisan support.

While the United States is legislating on stablecoin bills, several internet giants in the U.S. are also entering the stablecoin market.

Patrick Collison, CEO of global payment platform Stripe, announced on May 5th that the company is developing a dollar-based stablecoin product aimed primarily at markets outside the United States. On May 7th, Stripe announced the launch of a new feature allowing platform customers to “send, receive, and hold dollar stablecoin account balances, similar to how traditional fiat bank accounts operate.” This account supports Circle’s USDC and Bridge’s USDB, the latter of which was acquired by Stripe in October 2024. The service will cover over 100 countries, including Argentina, Chile, Turkey, Colombia, and Peru.

In addition, Meta, which has over 3 billion daily active users, is considering integrating stablecoins to reduce payment costs compared to fiat currencies, such as payments to Instagram creators. Reports indicate that “the company seems to have not yet determined which stablecoin to use specifically.” Furthermore, Meta has “contacted cryptocurrency infrastructure companies to address the cost issues of cross-regional payments.” The company has also hired “former Ripple executive Ginger Baker as Vice President of Product.”

IV. SEC and Ripple Reach Settlement

According to a statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on May 8, the SEC and Ripple submitted a joint settlement letter to a New York court, requesting the lifting of the injunction against Ripple set for August 2024 and the return of $75 million from the $125 million civil penalty held in escrow to the cryptocurrency company.

The settlement comes at a time when the SEC is fully withdrawing from a series of cryptocurrency investigations and lawsuits initiated during Gary Gensler’s tenure. After Trump took office in January this year and appointed Paul Atkins, who has a friendly stance towards cryptocurrencies, as the new chairman of the SEC, the SEC’s attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation has undergone a 180-degree turn.

But SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw ( criticized the pending transaction harshly in a statement on May 8, stating that it would undermine the agency’s ability to regulate cryptocurrency companies and jeopardize the court’s ruling.

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She stated: “This settlement agreement, along with the procedural dismantling of the SEC’s crypto enforcement program, has caused significant harm to the investing public and undermined the court’s role in interpreting our securities laws.” “At the same time, this settlement agreement, along with a series of dismissal decisions, has collectively harmed our lawyers’ credibility in court, and our lawyers are now being asked to take a legal position contrary to what was taken a few months ago.”

At the same time, Krenzhao believes that if Judge Torres accepts the settlement, it will erase “the investor protections we have won” and leave a “regulatory vacuum” until the cryptocurrency working group develops a regulatory framework. “This settlement agreement is not in the best interest of our agency’s service and protection of investors and the market. It brings more problems than answers.”

5. The SEC is considering new rules to ease the issuance of security tokens.

Hester Peirce, a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated in a speech on May 8 that the commission is considering amending rules to allow companies to issue tokenized securities more freely.

Pierce stated in his speech that regulators are “considering potential exemptions for companies that use blockchain technology to issue, trade, and settle securities,” freeing them from certain registration requirements. For example, decentralized exchange )DEX( may no longer need to register as a “broker-dealer, clearing agency, or exchange.” The SEC had previously issued multiple Wells notices to DEXs like Uniswap, accusing them of failing to register as exchanges. Companies “should not be bound by inappropriate regulations that were established before the technology being tested existed and may be nullified due to the characteristics of that technology.”

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6. Concerns about stagflation are “beneficial” for crypto assets

On May 7, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which has enhanced the appeal of cryptocurrencies. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized in his post-meeting speech that the risk of stagflation is rising—slow economic growth and persistent inflation—partly due to Trump’s tariff policies.

The Kobeissi Letter stated on X: “The Fed seems to expect that both inflation and unemployment rates will rise in the future,” adding, “They have paused interest rate cuts to observe which part of their dual mandate will heat up further. Uncertainty remains.”

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This environment has enhanced Bitcoin’s status as a store of value, often likened to “digital gold.” Due to concerns that inflationary pressures will erode fiat currencies, investors are turning to Bitcoin as a hedge, similar to the rise of cryptocurrencies during the monetary easing period in 2020.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl believes, “The Federal Reserve is concerned about stagflation, and we think this outcome is favorable for Bitcoin.”

VII. Technical Rebound in the Cryptocurrency Market

From a technical perspective, the current rise in cryptocurrency is part of a rebound starting from the $2.4 trillion support level. The last time the market capitalization broke the $3 trillion mark was on March 3, after which a sell-off triggered by tariffs led to a drop in market capitalization to $2.27 trillion on April 7. The current total market cap of the crypto market is $3.03 trillion, attempting to break through the resistance zone between $3.1 trillion and $3.25 trillion.

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Daily chart of cryptocurrency market capitalization.

If this happens, it would indicate that the bulls have the ability to maintain the upward trend and set their sights on the historical high of over $3.69 trillion. The daily RSI has steadily risen from the oversold level of 30 on April 7 to the current 68, suggesting that bullish momentum is accelerating.

8. How much can this round of market rise?

Standard Chartered Bank: The target of $120,000 for the second quarter may be too low.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, stated that the real drama is at the Treasury, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset is quietly reshaping global liquidity. With such a large amount of liquidity and the inability of the U.S. to control spending, Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028.

VALR Chief Marketing Officer Ben Caselin: As Bitcoin seeks to solidify its value above $100,000, it is “very likely” to quickly set a new high above $110,000. “Retail will only enter the traditional latter half of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which could reach a macro peak in the fourth quarter of this year.”

Charlie Sherry, the CFO of the Australian cryptocurrency exchange BTC Markets: Although we may see psychological resistance at the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin seems inevitably poised to add another zero to its price.

Crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano: The trade agreement means that the likelihood of us hitting a historical high in 2025 is increasing.