Strong NFP Data Crushes July Rate Cut Hopes for Now

• NFP beats with 147,000 jobs, July cut now off the table
• Private payrolls weak, showing underlying softness
• July 9 tariffs now the next major macro trigger

June’s non-farm payrolls came in strong at 147,000 vs 110,000 expected, with upward revisions. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, but nearly half of the gains came from government jobs. Private payrolls printed just 74,000—lowest since October 2024.

This pretty much kills any chance of a July rate cut. The Fed isn’t cutting into strength, even if that strength is narrow.

So why are markets holding up?

Because the data, while solid on paper, isn’t screaming overheating. It buys the Fed time. And for equity traders, no panic means no immediate reason to sell.

But there’s a wildcard coming fast—July 9 tariffs. If that narrative escalates, it could unwind this calm quickly. Especially into a thin, post-holiday tape.

In short, bulls live to fight another week. But the macro isn’t clean—it’s just quiet. For now.