ETH Market Volatility: Market Game Under the Interweaving of Institutional Layout and Technical Indicators

Event Review 🎯

In recent days, the ETH market has experienced significant fluctuations: within just 12 minutes, the price rapidly rose from $4227 to $4322, an increase of 2.25%. Subsequently, the market fluctuated at a high level, with prices hovering between $4305 and $4309, eventually retreating to $4286.09. During this wave of volatility, the frequent involvement of institutional funds and the intertwining of multiple technical indicators painted a complex picture of both short-term reversals and mid-to-long-term pressures in the market.

Timeline ⏰

17:13: The market has first revealed liquidation risks, with some analyses indicating that the liquidation amount of high-leverage long positions in ETH is approaching $500 million, suggesting that risks are accumulating.

17:17: On-chain data records show that whale funds have quietly entered the market—large holders have withdrawn a significant amount of WBTC and ETH from trading platforms, reflecting signs of bottom fishing.

17:27: Sharp traders began to enter the market, making large purchases of ETH at around $4240, demonstrating institutional funds’ confidence in the market bottom.

17:35: The price of ETH has seen a explosive surge, skyrocketing from $4227 to $4322, as major funds continuously position themselves to boost the market’s rapid rise.

17:35 to 17:53: After a rapid surge, ETH entered a high-level oscillation consolidation zone, with prices fluctuating slightly between 4305 and 4309 dollars.

18:16: Well-known trader “Yujin” publicly displays a position of over 100 million USD, once again sending a bullish signal to institutions, with a clear capital layout.

18:18: After experiencing severe fluctuations in the early stage, ETH has fallen to $4286.09, and the market has temporarily entered a phase of adjustment and consolidation.

Reason Analysis 🔍

① Major institutional capital layout A large number of main orders show that institutional funds are seizing the opportunity at low levels to strongly intervene. Technical indicators such as MACD, KDJ golden cross, and RSI oversold signals all point to a short-term rebound, indicating that there is significant buying pressure behind this rise. Especially during the sharp increase at 17:35, the concentrated appearance of large bottom-fishing orders further strengthened the market’s bottom support.

② Macroeconomic Expectations and Policy Benefits The US CPI data was lower than expected, and the expectations for interest rate cuts have risen. Additionally, the new regulatory policies released in places like Thailand and Hong Kong have improved market risk appetite. The stabilization of the regulatory environment and expectations of macroeconomic easing have attracted more institutional funds to allocate to crypto assets, driving overall market sentiment positively.

Technical Analysis 🛠️

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick data of ETH/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance, and the main observations are as follows:

KDJ Indicator: Shows a divergent trend, with enhanced trend strength, likely to support a short-term upward move;

Trading volume: increased by 27.36% compared to the previous period, with a 20-day average increase of 8.77%, indicating a continuous rise in overall market activity, and a clear entry of institutional styles;

Moving Average System: The short-term MA5, MA10, and MA20 are in a bearish arrangement, indicating that there is still bearish pressure in the short term.

EMA Indicator: The price is currently below the EMA 20/50/120 moving averages, indicating a weak long-term trend;

MACD and RSI: The MACD histogram continues to grow, indicating increased momentum, while the RSI breaks above the upward trend line, signaling a bullish trend.

TD Sequential: Currently in a bullish Setup phase (7/9), indicating a potential reversal in the short-term trend;

Medium-term trend: The price is still below the EMA24/52, and the slope of the EMA52 is -0.51%, indicating that medium-term bearish pressure cannot be ignored.

Large Orders and Major Transactions: In the past hour, the total amount of large orders across the network was approximately 7 million USD (with short positions accounting for 63%), while the net inflow of main funds reached 100 million USD, indicating that the market remains in a structural game.

Market Outlook 🌟

Looking to the future:

In the short term, the continuous intervention of main funds and technical rebound signals are expected to drive ETH to welcome a local rebound, but there are risks of high-level fluctuations and adjustments.

The frequent accumulation of institutional funds indicates that the long-term bullish sentiment remains strong, but at the same time, the moving averages and mid-term indicators show strong downward pressure, resulting in high market volatility.

Investors should closely monitor key support levels (such as around $4300) and changes in trading volume, allocate positions reasonably, and manage risk exposure effectively.

Overall, the macroeconomic easing policies and regional regulatory policies may provide support for the long term, but in the short term, the market may still experience significant fluctuations due to institutional position adjustments.

Through this wave of intense fluctuations in ETH, we have observed the dual effects of institutional funds and technical signals in the market. The future trend still holds uncertainty, and investors must remain cautious while capturing rebound opportunities and ensure proper risk management.