The Fed's crazy money printing machine restarts, will Bitcoin reach 3.4 million by 2028?

Author: Divine Grace

In the era of liquidity overflow, Bitcoin is becoming the ultimate Noah's Ark against the tide of fiat currency.

At the recent Korea Blockchain Week 2025 summit, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer Arthur Hayes once again put forward a shocking view: by 2028, the price of Bitcoin could soar to 3.4 million dollars.

Does this number sound crazy? But when you understand the logic behind it, you will find that it might be a rational warning of the collapse of the global monetary system.

Currency flood, the Federal Reserve's crazy printing machine is restarting.

Hayes points directly to the core issue: The Trump administration is pushing for the United States to return to the “yield curve control” (YCC) policy of the 1940s.

During World War II, the U.S. government collaborated with the Federal Reserve to manipulate the bond market to finance the war, capping the interest rates on 10 to 25-year government bonds at 2.5%. Now, the same scenario is playing out again.

The US federal debt has surpassed the $40 trillion mark, with interest payments accounting for 4.2% of GDP. In this situation, the Treasury is effectively injecting liquidity into the market that far exceeds the scale of the Federal Reserve's QE by issuing government bonds and adjusting repurchase rates.

Credit tsunami, a massive wave of $15 trillion

Hayes predicts that the U.S. will experience a massive credit creation in the next three years, with the scale potentially reaching $15.2 trillion—more than three times the credit expansion during the pandemic!

Where is this money coming from? The Trump administration is pushing two key policies: lowering short-term interest rates and implementing yield curve control.

The driving force behind this wave of credit tsunami is the acceleration of the U.S. reindustrialization process and the recovery of regional banks' credit expansion capabilities. In other words, the U.S. needs an enormous amount of money to rebuild its industrial base.

How to calculate the price of Bitcoin mathematics at $3.4 million

Hayes adopts a model of “credit creation per dollar versus the price increase of Bitcoin” for estimation.

The slope during the pandemic is: for every 1 dollar of credit created, the price of Bitcoin rises by 0.19 dollars. The calculation formula is very simple: 115,000 × (1 + 0.19 × 15.2 trillion dollars of credit growth ) ≈ 3.4 million dollars.

Although Hayes himself admits that “this number sounds ridiculous,” he emphasizes that the fundamental trend of Bitcoin entering the million-dollar era has already been established.

Scarcity against inflation, the ultimate value proposition of Bitcoin

When global fiat liquidity is flooding, assets with a fixed supply will experience explosive growth. Bitcoin has only about 21 million coins, and institutions have consumed 1.25 million coins through ETFs (6% of the circulating supply), while only 160,000 new coins are added each year after the halving.

This scarcity is the basis for its value surge. Hayes explains, “When central banks around the world are frantically printing money to save the market, Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins is like Noah's Ark.”

Against the backdrop of the global collapse of fiat currency credit, Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it an ideal tool for combating currency devaluation.

Smart capital has already laid out its plans, and institutional giants are quietly taking action.

Smart capital has already laid out in the market:

• MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy): has accumulated 632,000 bitcoins, with a cost price of $73,000, buying more as the price rises.
• Standard Chartered Bank: Reiterates the target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, expecting institutional buying to accelerate.
• National Level: Trump is considering using confiscated assets to build a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
• On-chain data: Long-term Bitcoin holders account for over 80% of the holdings, and liquidity is being crazily drained!

The global capital migration, Bitcoin becomes the only lifeboat.

Hayes' predictions are based not only on US policies but also take into account changes in global capital flows. He believes that the shift in foreign capital investment patterns will create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin is the most perfect and the only lifeboat when global capital leaves the United States and other regions.”

If foreign investors no longer invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve will need to implement quantitative easing measures, which could inadvertently benefit Bitcoin as a non-inflationary asset class.

Risks and Opportunities, Mad Prophecies and Harsh Realities

Despite Hayes' bold prediction, he also candidly stated, “I am almost 100% sure this won't happen.” His goal is not precise prediction, but rather to confirm the direction: amidst ongoing monetary expansion, Bitcoin remains the strongest track.

Bitcoin investment still faces huge risks: volatility, security vulnerabilities, and policy fluctuations form a triple risk. Although regulation is loosening, black swan events could trigger a halving-style crash.

How should ordinary people respond? Only engage in “regulated-backed tracks”, beware of the “pseudo-stablecoin trap”, and understand the “window period for policy signals”.

In his new book “The Long Cycle,” Dalio warns that the scale of U.S. debt has reached six times annual income, with interest payments accounting for 50% of the budget deficit. He suggests investors allocate 15% of their assets to gold and 5% to Bitcoin.

But Bitcoin may have advantages over gold: you cannot make second-level transfers with gold, nor can you expect U.S. Treasuries to hold their value in a political deadlock. Only Bitcoin truly achieves freedom, censorship-resistance, and inflation protection.

As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has surpassed 9 trillion dollars and the scale of Japanese government bonds held exceeds 260% of GDP, we are standing at a watershed moment in monetary history, where the collapse of the old order often coincides with the birth of a new system.