Macroeconomic and encryption dual focus: Gold breaks through $3780, Bitcoin/Ether ETF encounters a $1.7 billion sell-off!

Driven by the U.S. August core PCE data meeting expectations and reinforcing the Fed's expectations for further rate cuts this year, gold (XAU) prices continued to rise in early Asian trading on Monday, breaking through $3,780. Technical Analysis shows that both gold and silver are in a strong bullish trend. However, the crypto assets market is showing the opposite trend: Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. recorded over $1.7 billion in net outflows, marking the largest single-week loss since the launch of the Ethereum ETF. Institutional investors are shifting their focus to other altcoin assets like Solana and XRP amid geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties.

Gold Strongly Rises: Resonance of Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Safe-Haven Demand

The spot gold (XAU) price continued to rise on Monday, mainly benefiting from two positive factors:

1. Inflation data meets expectations: The U.S. August PCE report shows an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, with core PCE stable at 2.9%, both in line with market expectations. This indicates that the Fed can continue to moderate interest rate cuts without triggering new inflation concerns. The decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, directly supporting gold prices.

2. Geopolitical Tensions: The escalation of geopolitical tensions has intensified the market's demand for safe havens, providing additional support for gold. Market focus has shifted to the speeches of Fed officials (including Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, and Bostic) later today. Any dovish signals will reinforce expectations for rate cuts, pushing gold prices to continue rising; while hawkish comments may lead to a rebound in the dollar, pausing the short-term uptrend of gold.

Gold and Silver Technical Analysis

Gold (XAUUSD): The daily chart shows that the price has broken through the bullish continuation pattern after 3,500 USD, and the trend is healthy. In the short term, the price may continue to advance towards the 3,900-4,000 USD range. The breakout on the 4-hour chart confirms strong support and bullish momentum around 3,700 USD.

Silver (XAGUSD): The daily chart shows strong bullish momentum after silver broke through the 35.00 USD mark. Although there is overbought conditions in the short term, momentum points towards the 48-50 USD range. Analysts believe that any correction back to the 41.00-42.00 USD level would represent a strong long-term buying opportunity.

Dollar Index: Consolidating in a Downtrend

The daily chart of the USD Index shows that it has rebounded from the long-term support level of 96.50 to the resistance level of the bearish flag pattern, and is still in a consolidating phase within a bearish trend. Although the 4-hour chart has seen significant consolidation between 96 and 100, the overall negative outlook remains unchanged. 100-100.50 is a strong resistance, and the next move is likely to be downward; unless it breaks above 102, the bearish trend is difficult to reverse.

Institutional Retreat: Record Outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

In stark contrast to the strong performance of the precious metals market, the crypto assets ETF faced large redemptions last week:

Bitcoin ETF net outflow: The US spot Bitcoin ETF has ended several weeks of net inflows, recording a net outflow of $903 million last week, which coincided with an 8% drop in BTC prices during the same period.

Ethereum ETF records outflows: The total net redemptions of the Ethereum ETF reached $796 million, marking the highest weekly outflow since the product was launched in early 2025.

Analysts point out that institutional investors are adjusting their strategies to reduce exposure to volatile assets. Macroeconomic uncertainty, global growth slowdown, and the uncertain interest rate path of the Fed are the main reasons for the preferential exclusion of risk assets.

Shift in Demand: Solana and XRP ETF Favored

While traditional mainstream Crypto Assets ETF is experiencing a massive outflow, the fund flows indicate a selective rotation:

Other mainstream altcoins attract capital: The newly launched ETFs tracking altcoin assets such as Solana and XRP have seen moderate inflows.

Diversification Strategy: This shift indicates that institutions are not completely exiting the crypto space, but rather diversifying their portfolios, attempting to hedge against market volatility with different assets (which may currently be undervalued or have unique growth potential).

As market pressures persist, institutional investors are adopting more conservative defensive strategies, reducing their exposure to a broad range of digital assets and instead seeking more concentrated and smaller positions. This cautious stance is expected to continue until macroeconomic challenges are resolved.

Conclusion

At the macroeconomic level, the stability of U.S. inflation data provides confidence for the Fed to cut interest rates, pushing gold prices into a strong bullish channel, with $3,900-$4,000 becoming the focus. In the crypto market, the massive outflow of funds from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reflects the vulnerability of institutional sentiment and the risk aversion brought by macro uncertainties. Traders need to closely monitor today's speeches by Fed officials, as their impact on the short-term trends of the dollar and gold will be immediate. Meanwhile, the inflow trend of altcoin assets like Solana and XRP indicates that there are still structural opportunities in the market despite overall pressure.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.