Bitcoin flashes "bottom signal": BTC/XAU RSI falls into oversold zone, indicating a 90% rebound?

Bitcoin (BTC) is quietly flashing a historically familiar bottom signal, as the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the Bitcoin/Gold ratio (BTC/XAU) has fallen below 30 into the oversold zone. This signal means that Bitcoin's performance relative to gold has reached an extreme level of languish. Historically, this setup typically marks the “capitulation phase” of the crypto market and dumping fatigue, after which the BTC/USD price is likely to see a strong rebound. In August 2024 and March 2025, similar oversold readings triggered BTC/USD rises of 30% to 90%.

BTC/XAU Ratio: Gold Outperforming Risk Assets as a “Contrary Indicator”

Bitcoin/Gold Ratio is a key indicator of market risk appetite, and its oversold condition often signals that funds are about to rotate back from safe-haven assets to risk assets.

· RSI falls into Oversold zone

The daily RSI of the BTC/XAU ratio has deeply fallen below 30, indicating that Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is severely poor.

In previous cycles, this RSI reset often signifies the exhaustion point of the sell-off, rather than the beginning of a new downward trend.

· Historical Rebound Experience

In the past, every time this ratio reached these lows, as risk appetite returned, funds rotated from gold back to cryptocurrency, and the dollar price of Bitcoin began to recover within a few days or weeks.

Recent examples are August 2024 and March 2025, where both BTC/USD rebounded by 30% to 90% after similar oversold readings.

Signal Strength: Focus on the Formation of Bullish RSI Divergence

Although the current oversold signals are historically significant, the strongest historical rebounds are usually accompanied by the formation of bullish RSI divergence.

· Divergence is a stronger bottom signal

The most powerful historical reversals occur when oversold conditions coincide with bullish RSI divergence.

Bullish Divergence means that BTC/XAU has made lower lows, but the RSI has made higher lows, indicating that downward momentum is weakening, even though the price is still declining.

· Indication of a macro turning point

The setups in August 2024 and March 2025 conform to this pattern and trigger a more sustained Bitcoin Rebound.

If a similar structure forms again in the next few weeks (that is, after Oversold RSI, price falls but RSI shows higher lows), it will strengthen the possibility of a multi-month BTC/USD recovery phase.

Price Targets and Confirmation Signals: Focus on the Breakthrough of $116,000

Investors need to pay attention to key technical levels to confirm signals of capital rotation and determine potential targets for rebound.

· Confirmation of Relative Momentum Shift

To confirm the shift in relative momentum, BTC/XAU must reclaim the 20-day and 50-day EMA as support.

· Key levels of BTC/USD

On the BTC/USD chart, a breakthrough of 116,000 USD will perfectly align with this rotation signal, while failing to hold the support level of 109,000 USD may delay the recovery.

· Look up to $125,000 to $150,000

Currently, Bitcoin seems to be operating within an expanding wedge pattern.

Once the rebound breaks through the consolidation area clearly and aligns with the 20-day and 50-day EMA, the price of Bitcoin is expected to extend towards the upper trend line of the wedge near 125,000 USD.

Further breakthroughs could mean that BTC will reach the popular 2025 target of 150,000 USD. Conversely, if it fails to break through the EMA resistance, it may retest the 109,000 USD area and possibly fall to 100,000 USD.

Conclusion

Bitcoin/Gold Ratio RSI has fallen into the Oversold zone, which is a historically reliable bottom signal, indicating the end of the Capitulation phase and the potential beginning of capital rotation from gold to cryptocurrencies. Given that similar historical signals have triggered 30% to 90% rebounds, investors should closely monitor the BTC/XAU ratio recovering EMA and the confirmation signal of BTC/USD breaking above 116,000 USD. If this rotation signal is confirmed, Bitcoin is expected to break out of the current consolidation and move towards 125,000 USD or even 150,000 USD annual highs.

This article is news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.