Bitcoin Price Outlook: Wall Street Issues Pullback Warning, BTC May Revisit $100,000 Mark

Key Points:

Affected by the global risk-averse sentiment, Bitcoin fell by 2.25% on Tuesday, to around $104,200.

Executives from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Capital Group on Wall Street have warned that the stock market may decline by more than 10% in the coming year.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders sold over 400,000 bitcoins in the past month, accounting for about 2% of the total supply.

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 2.25% to around $104,200, reflecting the risk-averse sentiment sweeping global markets after Wall Street leaders warned that the U.S. stock market may be on the verge of a significant correction.

Wall Street's Cautious Sentiment Impacts Risk Assets

Bitcoin's decline coincides with the sell-off of U.S. stock index futures, following Palantir Technologies Inc.'s earnings report, which has once again raised concerns about the overvaluation of tech stocks.

Several Wall Street CEOs, including Mike Gitlin from Capital Group, Ted Pick from Morgan Stanley, and David Solomon from Goldman Sachs, have warned that investors should be prepared for a potential decline of more than 10% in the stock market over the next 12 to 24 months.

Gitlin pointed out that although corporate profits remain strong, valuations seem to be excessive.

He stated at the financial summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority: “Most people would say that the current valuation is between reasonable and high, but I think very few would say that the current valuation is between cheap and reasonable.”

He added that the same issue applies to credit spreads, which means that there is limited upside potential for risk assets in the short term.

Their common tone emphasizes the possibility of a market correction in the short term, which they describe as a “normal phenomenon” in the market cycle. However, as both stock and Bitcoin trading prices are nearing historical highs, market risk sentiment has generally weakened this week.

Long-term Bitcoin Holders Selling Off

CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that in the past 30 days, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold over 400,000 Bitcoins, accounting for about 2% of the total circulating supply, marking one of the largest sell-offs of 2025.

Historically, capital outflows from “diamond hands” often signal the arrival of a consolidation period or a mild correction, especially when macro risk aversion sentiment rises.

Despite facing selling pressure, the price of Bitcoin remains firmly above the key psychological level of $100,000, indicating that new buyers (possibly ETFs or institutional investors) are still continuing to absorb the remaining Bitcoin supply.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: May Test $101,000

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin weekly chart shows that the price is testing the 20-week exponential moving average around $105,000 (EMA), with the next key support level near the 50-week EMA around $101,000.

If it breaks below this level, the market may further correct to the range of 96,000 to 98,000 dollars, which has historically been a zone of concentrated demand.

The weekly Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) has retreated to close to 46, indicating weakening momentum, but has not yet entered the oversold territory.

A drop in Bitcoin below 100,000 USD will trigger a chain reaction

The impact of Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 will be significant, potentially triggering severe short-term market volatility and deep corrections. This will be a major test of market sentiment and could lead to a large number of leveraged positions being liquidated. The market may enter a consolidation period, seeking new price support levels and narrative momentum.

1. Market sentiment has plummeted.

• Erosion of Confidence and Panic Sentiment: $100,000 is an important psychological support level. Falling below this threshold would severely undermine market confidence, triggering a rapid shift from extreme optimism (FOMO) to panic and uncertainty.
• Retail Panic Selling: A large number of retail investors who bought at around or above the $100,000 level may panic sell in an attempt to cut losses, exacerbating downward pressure on prices.

2. Technical support turns into resistance

• Psychological Support Failure: An important integer threshold has shifted from a psychological support level to a psychological resistance level. In the future, as prices rebound, $100,000 may become a difficult upper resistance to break through.
• Trigger Stop-Loss Orders: A large number of stop-loss orders set around $100,000 will be triggered, leading to an automatic sell-off and accelerating the price decline.

3. Increased Risk of Leverage Liquidation

• Mass Liquidation: During the uptrend, many investors use high leverage to go long. Once the price drops significantly, especially below key support levels, it will lead to a large number of long positions being forcibly liquidated (liquidation), further releasing selling pressure into the market.

4. Institutional capital flow reversal

• ETF Capital Outflow: If prices continue to decline, it may trigger capital outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding spot Bitcoin. Institutional investors may reduce their positions based on risk management models, thereby increasing liquidity pressure in the market.
• Short-term Arbitrage Exit: Some short-term traders and institutions that entered at lower price levels may choose to exit to lock in profits, resulting in increased selling pressure.

5. The altcoin market is under pressure.

• General Decline: Bitcoin is the barometer of the crypto market. A significant drop in Bitcoin's price often drags down the entire market, and altcoins and Ethereum may experience even larger declines as investors tend to avoid risk.

6. Reevaluation of Macros Narrative

• Value storage attributes questioned: The value storage properties of Bitcoin as “digital gold” may be subject to short-term doubts.
• Market Enters Adjustment Cycle: Falling below $100,000 may mark the transition of the market from the bullish sprint phase into a mid-term adjustment or bear market cycle, as the market may need time to digest overly optimistic sentiment and high valuations.