Gold vs. Bitcoin: How Will Liquidity Pressure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Affect the Next Move?

As top banking executives from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan issued rare market warnings, global investors’ risk aversion surged sharply. Gold and Bitcoin, as two “safe-haven assets,” showed markedly different trends amid liquidity tightening and macroeconomic uncertainty: gold remained steady with slight gains, while Bitcoin faced downward pressure due to capital constraints and declining market speculation. This article delves into the roots of their divergence across three dimensions—liquidity, macroeconomic data, and investment structures—and explores the potential impact of this “safe-haven contest” on the crypto market.

Frequent Market Warnings: Wall Street Leaders Sound the Alarm

At the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit held in Hong Kong, Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned that global markets could face a “severe correction.” Earlier, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon pointed out that investors are “underestimating the risk of a deep decline in U.S. stocks.”

These warnings have significantly heightened market fear and prompted funds to flow back into safe-haven assets. Notably, while gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BTC) are often viewed as dual hedges against risk, their performance is now increasingly diverging under current financial conditions.

Bitcoin Under Pressure: A “Leading Indicator” in Liquidity Tightening

Technical Signals: Key Support Levels Tested

(Source: TradingView)

Recently, Bitcoin broke below the $110,000 support level and is now consolidating around $100,000. Technical charts indicate that if the price falls below this key psychological level, a further bearish trend could be confirmed. Structurally, Bitcoin is moving within a “symmetrical expansion wedge”; a break below the lower trendline could trigger a deeper correction.

Macro Impact: Spreading Funding Market Pressure

The U.S. short-term funding market is showing increasing stress. Data reveals that the SOFR overnight secured financing rate has remained above the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB), indicating tight short-term liquidity. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury’s General Account (TGA) balance is rising, and the ongoing government shutdown further drains market liquidity.

In such an environment, speculative assets like Bitcoin tend to be the first to feel the squeeze on capital.

This explains why, under the same macro cycle, gold remains resilient while Bitcoin enters a technical correction first.

Gold Remains Steady: A Structural Bull in Correction

Technical Structure Indicates a “Healthy Pullback”

Gold has recently retreated from its all-time highs but remains above $3,900. The overall price action suggests profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. If short-term support at this level is broken, gold could correct toward $3,700. Conversely, a break above $4,050 might trap bears (“Bear Trap”) and reignite an upward move targeting $4,400.

Long-term charts show that since breaking above $3,000, gold has established a sustained structural uptrend. The RSI indicator is currently at levels not seen since the 1980s; despite short-term overbought signals, historical patterns (e.g., 2008) suggest such conditions often precede larger bullish cycles.

Macroeconomic Factors: Manufacturing Recession Reinforces Gold’s Safe-Haven Logic

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below the growth/ contraction threshold for eight consecutive months, indicating ongoing manufacturing contraction. Declining new orders and employment further signal weak industrial demand. Companies reducing orders reflect cautious outlooks on future sales, deepening fears of economic slowdown or recession. Against this backdrop, gold’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset continues to strengthen, attracting capital inflows.

Divergence in Safe-Haven Flows: Liquidity Cycles as a Mirror

The core difference between gold and Bitcoin lies in their sensitivity to liquidity cycles. Bitcoin is highly dependent on market liquidity and risk appetite; when financial conditions tighten, its price tends to be highly volatile. Gold, on the other hand, demonstrates resilience during tightening cycles and tends to attract safe-haven funds during economic slowdown.

Factors like the government shutdown and tight funding markets have temporarily increased market volatility, but these pressures are usually cyclical. Looking at the long-term, trends such as AI investment, geopolitical tensions, and de-dollarization are quietly reshaping macro capital flows.

Currently, gold’s robust technical structure and counter-cyclical nature make it more attractive to institutional investors. Bitcoin, however, may need a more accommodative liquidity environment and renewed risk appetite to regain upward momentum.

Extended Insights into the Crypto Market: Policy and Taxation’s Hidden Impact on Capital Flows

It’s worth noting that many countries are gradually tightening crypto-related tax policies. For example, France recently proposed the Unproductive Wealth Tax, which includes cryptocurrencies in annual wealth assessments. This means large digital asset holdings could face additional tax burdens, exerting a dampening effect on market capital.

When liquidity tightness and stricter tax policies coincide, inflows into volatile assets like Bitcoin are likely to diminish significantly.

In contrast, gold, unaffected by such policies, tends to benefit from rising risk aversion and safe-haven demand.

This trend highlights that:

Tax policies and financial liquidity together form a “macro double pressure” on the crypto market, largely influencing capital preferences and risk exposure.

Conclusion

As the global markets enter a “high-pressure liquidity cycle,” risk assets are being repriced. Gold continues to perform steadily amid economic weakness and liquidity constraints, reaffirming its traditional safe-haven role. Bitcoin, meanwhile, exhibits higher volatility and risk exposure in a tightening environment.

However, history shows that liquidity cycles eventually turn. When the world shifts back to a loosening phase, Bitcoin—driven by scarcity and expanding digital finance ecosystems—may once again become a focal point for capital inflows.