Bitcoin Price Prediction: $83,800 support level under pressure, El Salvador goes against the trend to buy the dip with $110 million BTC

On November 19, 2025, the price of Bitcoin continues to be under pressure around $91,000. Although technical analysis indicates that the bearish ABCD pattern may push the price toward the target of $83,800, institutional investors and sovereign nations are showing strong buying confidence.

Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $10.2 million in Bullish stock during the crypto stock sell-off, while El Salvador, disregarding IMF guidance, purchased $100 million in Bitcoin, increasing its total holdings from 5,968 coins in December 2024 to 7,474 coins. These large-scale purchases highlight the significant divergence between long-term conviction and short-term market weakness, injecting key confidence into the Bitcoin market.

Institutions Buy on Dips and Sovereigns Increase BTC Holdings

In the context of a generally sluggish global cryptocurrency market, ARK Invest's contrarian investment operations are particularly noteworthy. This Monday, ARK Invest allocated $10.2 million to purchase Bullish stocks in its flagship ETFs—ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF—while Bullish's stock price had already fallen by 4.5% to $36.75, continuing a nearly 46% six-month decline. This buying opportunity coincided with the day before Bullish's third-quarter earnings report, demonstrating ARK's firm confidence in the exchange's recovery potential.

More symbolically, El Salvador's sovereign-level accumulation of Bitcoin is significant. Despite agreeing to limit Bitcoin purchases when reaching a $1.4 billion loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, the country still purchased 1,090 Bitcoins, worth over $100 million. This action directly challenges the IMF's guidelines and refutes the IMF's earlier claim this year that El Salvador had not purchased any new Bitcoins since the loan arrangement. The El Salvador government's move demonstrates its firm belief in the long-term value of Bitcoin, remaining steadfast even in the face of pressure from international institutions.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Market Structure Analysis

From a Technical Analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently forming a bearish ABCD pattern on the daily chart. This harmonic structure is known for its symmetry in price fluctuations, indicating a potential completion around $83,800 — a key demand area that triggered significant rebounds in early 2024. The “AB” leg, which fell from $115,200 to $99,000, is now mirrored in the ongoing “CD” leg, suggesting that the downward momentum may soon reach an exhaustion point.

Multiple technical indicators confirm a bearish control in the short term. The 20-day EMA has crossed below the 50-day EMA, while the RSI hovers around 30, indicating an oversold condition — this is often a precursor to a relief rally. The candlestick pattern also suggests that a reversal may be brewing, with long lower shadows indicating that dip buyers are starting to enter near the support level, testing market sentiment while probing BTC's technical bottom. If the bulls can hold the $83,800 region, the likelihood of a bounce back to $96,000 or even $99,000 will significantly increase.

Bitcoin key technical levels and market data

ABC pattern target position: $83,800

Key resistance levels: $96,000, $99,000

Whale Wallet: The number of wallets holding 1000+ BTC has increased to 1384, reaching a four-month high.

Retail wallets: The number of wallets holding ≤1BTC has decreased to 977,420, marking a yearly low.

Fear and Greed Index: Remains at an extreme fear level of 11

Bitcoin Whale Accumulation and Retail Withdrawal

On-chain data shows a clear differentiation in the behavior of market participants. The number of whale wallets holding at least 1,000 Bitcoins rose to 1,384 this week, an increase of 2.2% from 1,354 three weeks ago. This number of large holder wallets has reached its highest point in four months, indicating that institutions and ultra-high-net-worth investors have strengthened their confidence amid market turbulence.

In stark contrast, small holders are withdrawing en masse. The number of wallets containing 1 Bitcoin or less has dropped to 977,420, down from 980,577 at the end of October, marking the lowest level of participation from small holders in a year. This whale accumulation and retail sell-off pattern has historically often indicated that the market is about to stabilize, with only 7.6% of short-term holder supply currently in profit—this level typically occurs at the bottom of the cycle.

Bitcoin Market Sentiment and Capital Rotation

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained at 11 (out of 100) for two consecutive days, reflecting deep fear in the market. Social media sentiment has turned extremely negative, with traders sharing memes about returning to traditional jobs and expressing skepticism about a quick recovery. According to Coinglass's Bitcoin long-short ratio chart, the overall trend shows persistent bearish pressure, with traders repeatedly positioning for price declines.

However, some market observers view this extreme pessimism as a contrarian signal. On-chain analysis indicates that the sell-off exhaustion phenomenon is evident, with capital rotating within the crypto market rather than completely leaving. The open interest for BTC/USDT remains around 100,000, showing that even with the price decline, trader participation remains strong. This situation—an increase in open interest while the price falls—typically signals bearish sentiment, possibly driven by aggressive short selling.

Bitcoin Regulatory Breakthrough and Financial Innovation

In New Hampshire, Bitcoin has reached an important regulatory milestone. The state's Business and Financial Management Bureau has approved $100 million in Bitcoin-backed municipal conduit bonds, marking the first municipal bonds ever to be collateralized by Bitcoin. This initiative opens the door for digital assets to enter the $140 trillion global debt market.

This Bitcoin bond is designed by Wave Digital Assets and Rosemawr Management to connect crypto assets with the traditional debt market. According to the proposed structure, borrowers will issue Bitcoin worth approximately 160% of the bond value as collateral, and liquidation will only be triggered if BTC falls below 130%. This Bitcoin-backed municipal bond is specifically designed for institutions seeking compliant BTC exposure and represents a significant advancement in the integration of traditional finance and crypto assets.

Macroeconomic Background and Policy Impact

Former Barclays CEO and current head of Atlas Merchant Capital, Bob Diamond, views the recent turmoil in the global asset markets as a healthy correction rather than the beginning of a full-blown bear market. Diamond noted that investors are still struggling to price risk assets amidst rapid technological change. This macro backdrop has significant implications for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

On the other hand, the expectations of Federal Reserve policy are also shaping market sentiment. Traders have low confidence in a rate cut again in December, with swap contracts pricing in a probability of less than 50% for a December action. Several policymakers have recently warned against rate cuts citing inflation risks, although Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a rate cut. This policy uncertainty limits the upward momentum of risk assets, but also leaves room for a rebound once future policies become clearer.

Whales are quietly accumulating Bitcoin around $83,800, while retail investors are panic selling—this classic divergence scenario seems to be replaying the cyclical patterns of the crypto market. But what’s different this time is the presence of sovereign nations and municipal bonds on the stage, weaving a new narrative for Bitcoin alongside institutional investors: the transformation from a fringe speculative asset to a strategic reserve asset may only be completed through such market growing pains.

FAQ

How large are the buying scales of ARK Invest and El Salvador?

ARK Invest purchased $10.2 million in Bullish stock, and El Salvador increased its holdings of Bitcoin by $109 million, making a total buying scale of $110 million particularly prominent during the market downturn.

What is the technical meaning of the Bitcoin ABCD pattern?

The bearish ABCD pattern target is at $83,800, which is the key support area that triggered a significant rebound in early 2024. The symmetry between legs AB and CD indicates that the downward momentum may be nearing exhaustion.

What are the differences between the behavior of whales and retail investors?

The number of whale wallets holding over 1000+ BTC has increased to 1384 (a four-month high), while the number of retail wallets holding ≤1 BTC has decreased to 977,420 (an annual low), showing typical bottom characteristics of institutional accumulation and retail withdrawal.

What innovations do Bitcoin bonds in New Hampshire have?

Approved $100 million in Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds, with a collateral rate of 160% and a liquidation line of 130%, setting a precedent for Bitcoin's entry into the $140 trillion global debt market.

What is the current market sentiment indicator?

The Fear and Greed Index remains at an extreme fear level of 11, social media sentiment is extremely negative, but on-chain data shows sell exhaustion and internal capital rotation rather than complete withdrawal.