XRP falls to a key support level, as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations cool down, suppressing market sentiment.

On November 19, 2025, the price of XRP fell by 4.94% to $2.1083, reaching a key psychological support level, mainly influenced by the cooling expectations of Fed rate cuts and the continuous outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the CME FedWatch tool data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has plummeted from 93.7% on October 17 to 32.8% on November 19, leading to widespread pressure in the crypto assets market.

Despite the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) recording a net inflow of $13 million on November 19, it failed to offset market pessimism. Analysts pointed out that the upcoming XRP ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Bitwise could provide a rebound for XRP if they receive strong capital inflows, but the short-term trend is still dominated by Fed policy guidance.

XRP Price Performance and Market Pressure Factors

XRP faced significant selling pressure on November 19, with a daily decline of 4.94%, closing at $2.1083, completely reversing the previous day's gain of 2.49%. This performance lagged behind the overall Crypto Assets market's drop of 1.84%, indicating specific pressure on XRP. From a technical analysis perspective, XRP has currently fallen below the 50-day exponential moving average ($2.4547) and the 200-day exponential moving average ($2.5520), confirming a short-term bearish trend. The price is now close to the key psychological support level of $2.0, and if it fails to hold, it may further test the support level of $1.9112.

The core factors leading to the weakness of XRP stem from the macroeconomic level. The minutes from the Fed's October FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers are concerned about inflation, while noting that the labor market is cooling rather than collapsing. There are significant divisions among committee members regarding the need for further rate cuts, which has directly led to a sharp cooling of market expectations for a rate cut in December. Noted crypto assets commentator Paul Barron pointed out: “Market crash: The probability of a December rate cut has plummeted to 42% (currently 33%). A perfect storm hits Crypto Assets: Today's released FOMC minutes show that Fed officials have serious divisions over a rate cut in October. Many participants stated that no further rate cuts are needed until 2025. Several officials warned that further rate cuts could lead to entrenched inflation.”

Another pressure that cannot be ignored comes from the delay in data release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the complete cancellation of the October employment report due to the impact of the government shutdown. The November data will not be released until December 16, which is just after the Fed meeting on December 9-10. Barron commented, “The Fed is now driving in the fog without key labor market data.” This lack of data makes it difficult for investors to assess the true state of the economy, increasing market uncertainty. Since the U.S. government shutdown on October 1, XRP has fallen by 29%, and the delayed release of economic data after the government reopens continues to suppress market sentiment.

XRP ETF Fund Flow and Institutional Demand Analysis

Despite the unfavorable market environment, the fund flow data for the XRP ETF offers a glimmer of hope. Canary Capital reports that on November 19, the XRPC ETF trading volume exceeded $26.5 million, with a net inflow of $13 million. Although the data on the fifth day is relatively moderate compared to the first day, it at least shows that institutional demand still exists. More importantly, Franklin Templeton and Bitwise's XRP ETF is about to launch, which is expected to attract a larger amount of funds.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart announced: “It looks like Bitwise Invest will launch their XRP ETF tomorrow. The description page on the Bloomberg terminal is now live, and the stock code will be XRP (elite code).” This news provides a potential catalyst for the market. Analyzing from the perspective of ETF issuer strength, Franklin Templeton ranks 19th in the ETF issuer asset management scale with managed assets of $44.7 billion; Bitwise Asset Management ranks 56th with $5.58 billion in managed assets; while Canary Capital, which first launched the XRP Spot ETF, ranks only 231st with managed assets of about $8.482 million. This strength gap suggests that the products from Franklin and Bitwise may receive a stronger market response.

Observing historical patterns, the capital inflow of new ETF products is often strongest in the early stages of their launch. For XRP, strong ETF demand may help it decouple from Bitcoin's trends and enter an independent market. However, under the current macroeconomic pressure, this decoupling effect may be limited. Investors need to closely monitor the capital flow data of the three products: XRPC, XRPZ, and XRP, especially the net inflow/outflow situation, as this will become a key indicator of XRP's short-term price trend.

Key Data and Technical Levels in the XRP Market

Price fall on November 19: 4.94%

Closing price: 2.1083 USD

50-day EMA resistance level: $2.4547

200-day EMA resistance level: $2.5520

Key psychological support level: $2.0

Secondary support level: 1.9112 USD

XRPC ETF single day net inflow: 13 million USD

XRPC ETF daily trading volume: 26.5 million USD

December Fed rate cut probability: 32.8% (significantly down from 93.7% on October 17)

Outlook on Regulatory Environment and Policy Catalysts

The future performance of XRP not only depends on market sentiment but is also closely related to regulatory progress. Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered banking license is receiving significant attention, and if approved, it will open new avenues for XRP's application in the traditional financial sector. Meanwhile, the market structure bill currently being reviewed by the U.S. Congress is also a potential catalyst; if passed, it will provide a clearer regulatory framework for Crypto Assets, reducing legal uncertainty.

Looking at the policy timeline, there are several key events in the coming weeks that may affect the price movement of XRP: speeches by Fed officials will provide more policy signals; the official launch of the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) and Bitwise XRP ETF, along with initial capital flow data; blue-chip companies' views on XRP as a treasury reserve asset; and the progress of the U.S. Senate on the market structure bill. Any positive developments could drive a rebound in the price of XRP.

However, regulatory risks cannot be ignored. If Fed officials release hawkish signals, XRP Spot ETF reports a net outflow, the U.S. Senate challenges crypto-friendly legislation, blue-chip companies show reduced interest in XRP as a treasury reserve asset, or the OCC delays or rejects Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank license, it could exacerbate the downward pressure on XRP. Especially in the current context of weak technicals, these negative catalysts may push XRP to test the support level of $2.00 or even $1.9112.

XRP Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP's short-term structure shows that $2.0 has become a key support level. In early November, after XRP failed to break through the upward trend line, it turned to test the downward trend line support. If it falls below the current $2.0 support, the next key support level is at $1.9112. On the upside, XRP needs to first break through the $2.2 resistance level to potentially challenge the $2.35 level further. A sustained breakthrough of $2.35 will make the 50-day EMA ($2.4547) the next resistance level. Breaking through the 50-day EMA could direct the bulls' target toward $2.5.

Volume analysis shows that the recent decline is accompanied by moderate volume, indicating that selling pressure indeed exists. However, compared to the sell-off in October, the current trading volume is relatively low, which may suggest that panic selling is less prevalent, and more cautious investors are reducing their risk exposure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 35, close to the oversold territory but not extreme yet, indicating there is still room for further decline.

From the market breadth perspective, XRP's performance is highly correlated with the entire crypto assets market, but its correlation with Bitcoin has slightly decreased. This decline in correlation may create space for XRP to develop an independent market trend, especially if XRP-specific positive catalysts emerge, such as strong ETF capital inflows or positive regulatory progress. Investors should pay attention to the performance of the XRP/BTC trading pair; if this trading pair strengthens, it usually indicates an improvement in XRP's relative performance.

XRP Investment Strategies and Risk Management Recommendations

In light of the current market environment, investors should consider a tiered strategy. Short-term traders should closely monitor the defense of the 2.0 dollar support level; if it breaks down, they should consider reducing their positions or setting stop losses. A breakthrough of the 2.2 dollar resistance level can be seen as a short-term rebound signal, but it needs to be confirmed with an increase in trading volume. Medium to long-term investors may consider building positions in batches at the current level, but they should strictly control the size of their positions to avoid excessive exposure to a single asset.

From the perspective of risk-reward ratio, the potential return for entering around $2.0 may be higher than the risk, provided that investors have sufficient risk tolerance and patience to wait for catalysts to appear. Setting clear stop-loss levels (such as $1.95) helps control downside risk. At the same time, investors should diversify their investment time and adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to smooth out entry costs, avoiding investing all funds at once.

For investors who already hold XRP, considering to take some profits when it rebounds to resistance levels (such as $2.35 or $2.45) may be a good strategy, while keeping cash on hand for better entry opportunities. At the same time, closely monitor the Fed's policy direction and ETF capital flow data, as these factors may be more influential than technical analysis in determining XRP's short-term trend.

FAQ

Why is XRP so sensitive to Fed policies?

As an important component of the crypto assets market, XRP's price is influenced by global liquidity and risk appetite. The Fed's policy directly affects the liquidity of the dollar and the market's willingness to bear risk, which in turn impacts digital assets such as XRP.

How does the inflow of funds into the XRP ETF affect the price?

The influx of funds into the ETF represents institutional demand, directly increasing the buying pressure for XRP, especially when the ETF issuer needs to purchase physical XRP in the market to support fund shares, which will create additional buying demand.

How important is the 2.0 USD support level?

2.0 USD is an important psychological level and technical support. A breach may trigger programmatic sell-offs and stop-loss orders, leading to further falls, while holding may attract technical buying.

What advantages does Canary have compared to the ETFs of Franklin and Bitwise?

Franklin and Bitwise, as established ETF issuers, have a broader customer base, higher market recognition, and stronger distribution capabilities, which may attract larger capital inflows to their products.

What are the key catalysts for the short-term rebound of ### XRP?

Positive developments, including the Fed's shift to a dovish stance, strong capital inflows into XRP ETF, Ripple's banking license approval, or the passage of market structure legislation, could drive XRP's rebound.