Bitcoin fell from 120,000 to 90,000: I didn't sell at the top, but these five signals tell me - the bull run is not dead yet.

Original Title: Bitcoin big dump 30%, has it really entered a Bear Market? A comprehensive assessment using 5 analytical frameworks.

Original Author: Little Fish

Source of the original text:

Reprinted: Daisy, Mars Finance

Bitcoin price has fallen nearly 30% from 120,000 to 90,000.

I have been dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin for three years, but I still haven't sold at the peak.

I've been regretting lately why I didn't sell at the peak when it was 120,000.

The current yield has retracted a lot,

I am very afraid that I will ride a roller coaster of wealth,

If the Bitcoin market's four-year cycle theory has not been broken,

This means I have to wait another 4 years.

How many 4-year periods are there in life?

So, has the Bear Market started now?

I believe that not just me, but many people also want to know the answer.

To avoid the impact of various market noises on my judgment, and of course, to give myself a psychological boost, I used various analytical frameworks for a comprehensive assessment, and the conclusion is still very optimistic.

Everyone can come together for a mental massage ???.

1. Fear and Greed Index

The current index is 15 (extreme fear), and the market panic has lasted for a month.

Extreme fear often accompanies a sell-off cycle, reinforcing downward pressure.

If the index remains below 20, it may trigger further liquidation.

However, historically, extreme fear is a buying opportunity.

The current panic may be close to the bottom, and there will be a rebound in the short term.

This analysis framework indicates that we are currently in a short-term Bear Market, but it is not a bull to bear transition.

2. Technical Analysis

The 50-day/200-day MA indicator has confirmed a death cross (short-term MA crossing below long-term MA), similar to the start of the Bear Market in 2022.

From a technical perspective, there is currently a strong Bear Market signal, and the trend is reversing, with a target range of $74,000-80,000.

The RSI (14-day) indicator quickly fell from 70+ (overbought) to 35 (oversold), accompanied by high volatility. The short-term oversold condition suggests a rebound, but without breaking 30, there is no strong reversal.

So, from the technical indicators, it is clear that we are in a Bear Market, but the oversold condition suggests a possible rebound in 1-2 weeks.

3. Fundamental Analysis

ETF Inflow: $61.9 billion flowed in throughout the year, but turned to outflow after Q3. Institutions (like MicroStrategy) are still accumulating chips, but retail panic is intensifying selling pressure.

Market liquidity: First, the U.S. government shutdown, with the Treasury not injecting funds into the market, coupled with increasing divergence on interest rate cuts in December, has led to a rise in overall uncertainty.

Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7, affected by interest rates, inflation, and liquidity, with macro tightening being the main focus in 2025.

From a fundamental perspective, it is still a bull market now, and even a long-term bull market. The big dump has not arrived yet, but the short-term outflow can be considered a market correction.

4. On-chain data analysis

Active addresses: down 20% from the peak.

Trading volume: big dump of 30%.

Holding address: Long-term holdings (>1 year) account for 65%, UTXO age distribution still shows accumulation, not panic selling.

On-chain weakness indicates that the market is currently very bearish, but holding behavior data shows that it is not a complete collapse.

5. Market Cycle Analysis

The traditional 4-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving has transformed in 2025, mainly influenced by ETFs and the influx of traditional capital.

After a reduction of six months to 19 months, the historical highest price should generally be higher, but the ETF absorption of supply has changed the dynamics, and the peak impact has weakened.

Similar to the late cycle of 2017, it will rebound after a fall of 20%.

So, the bull market may continue until 2026, with a target price still at 200,000.

Summarize it.

Have we entered a Bear Market now?

The short term (1-3 months) has entered a Bear Market correction, with technical/on-chain/macroeconomic indicators consistently showing downward pressure, targeting a price range of 70-80k, with a probability of 40%.

But we have not entered a full Bear Market yet. The institutional ETF and on-chain holding behaviors indicate that the current fundamentals are still solid, with no risk of a crash, and the cycle may extend until 2026.

How will the market develop in the future?

Further pullback, probing the bottom at 70,000, with a probability of 15%;

Continue to consolidate, oscillating up and down, using time to exchange for space, the probability is 50%;

The subsequent rebound is expected to return to above 100,000, or even reach a new high, with a probability of 35%.