JPMorgan: The MSCI index may kick out MicroStrategy, potentially triggering an outflow of nearly $10 billion in funds.

JPMorgan warned that MicroStrategy (Strategy) may be removed by MSCI and other index companies in January 2026, potentially triggering an outflow of nearly $9 billion in funds, severely impacting stock price valuation. Analysts believe that the recent fall in the price of $MSTR has significantly exceeded that of Bitcoin, indicating that the market has already reacted to this risk.

MSTR stock price falls worse than BTC: the market has already reflected the risks in advance.

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in a report on Wednesday that MicroStrategy, as a long-term benchmark Bitcoin reserve company (DAT), the reduction of valuation premium indicates that the market is repricing its risk structure.

However, in recent months, MicroStrategy's stock price fall has significantly outpaced Bitcoin, indicating that the decline reflects not just the volatility of Bitcoin itself, but perhaps increasing investor concerns about the potential selling pressure arising from the company's removal from major indices.

(Saylor is not afraid of Bitcoin's 90% fall “MicroStrategy is unbreakable”, Schiff is pessimistic: it will ultimately go bankrupt)

$10 billion selling pressure: If MicroStrategy is excluded by MSCI, will there be a chain reaction?

MicroStrategy is currently included in several major global indices such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI World, and MSCI ACWI, with its stock infiltrating a large number of ETFs and passive fund portfolios. Analysts estimate that MicroStrategy has a market value of approximately $9 billion coming from these passive funds.

If the micro strategy is removed from the MSCI index, it could lead to a capital outflow of 2.8 billion dollars; if other index providers follow suit, it could trigger a capital outflow pressure of up to 8.8 billion dollars.

( MicroStrategy failed to join the S&P 500 index, Saylor was selected as Bloomberg's billionaire with assets exceeding 7.3 billion dollars )

Data Breakdown: Overview of the MSTR Share and Scale in Major Indices

J.P. Morgan cited Bloomberg data indicating that the fund size tracking related indices is massive; even though MicroStrategy's proportion is not high, the amount is still astonishing.

Including 1.74 billion dollars from Nasdaq 100, 1.66 billion dollars from CRSP US Total Market, and over 3.79 billion dollars from Russell, MSCI World, and MSCI ACWI.

The far-reaching consequences of being excluded: difficulty in fundraising and loss of investment attractiveness.

JPMorgan pointed out that if MicroStrategy is excluded, the impact will not only be limited to these passive sell pressures, but more importantly, the valuation compression and fundraising capabilities constrained by this negative signal.

At the same time, combined with the current situation where mNAV is close to 1, this will make the company less attractive, leading to a decrease in trading volume and liquidity.

(S&P assigns MicroStrategy a “B-” rating: high Bitcoin exposure, capital structure unusually fragile)

Key Day Countdown: MSCI Decision Scheduled for January 15 Next Year

MSCI announced last month that it is consulting on whether to exclude Bitcoin or digital asset reserve company (DAT), and will conclude this consultation on December 31 of this year, with the decision results to be announced on January 15, 2026.

( Crypto reserve company faces obstacles! The three major exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region are strictly controlling listings, and MSCI recommends excluding DAT from the index )

JPMorgan described this day as a key turning point for MicroStrategy. Once removed, it will take effect in February next year and may trigger an unprecedented reversal in market sentiment.

This article Morgan Stanley: The MSCI index may kick out MicroStrategy, or trigger a capital outflow of nearly 10 billion USD first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.