Gold's "Long Bull" Meets Silver's "Soaring": A "Stress Test" Revealing the Future of Assets

The precious metals market is currently staging a thought-provoking “Ice and Fire” spectacle. After the Federal Reserve showed signs of internal division with its rate cut, gold prices experienced a slight pullback to around $4,210.72 due to uncertainties about future easing paths. Meanwhile, silver disregarded macro uncertainties, surging to a historic high of $62.88 on December 11, with an annual increase of up to 113%. This divergence aligns with a major prediction from top investment bank Goldman Sachs, which believes that core drivers such as central bank gold purchases and private wealth allocation will push gold to $4,900 by 2026. This “stress test” within traditional safe-haven assets may serve as a critical mirror for understanding the unique logic of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin under complex macro environments.

Market Immediate Response: Gold and Silver Divergence Under the “Hawkish Rate Cut” by the Fed

The Fed’s decision on December 10, Beijing time, brought not clarity but deeper confusion. An unusual 9 to 3 split vote resulted in the expected 25 basis points rate cut, but the subsequent “dot plot” starkly indicated that future rate cuts would be “rare and prolonged.” This complex signal of a “hawkish rate cut” left gold, which relies heavily on rate cut expectations, directionless for a time.

After the announcement, spot gold retreated from near-week highs, stabilizing around $4,210 per ounce. KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Warter highlighted the key: gold’s inability to continue rising is due to the Fed’s message essentially implying that further rate cuts are unlikely. The market awaits clearer evidence of labor market cooling and controlled inflation, leading to a short-term wait-and-see mode for gold.

However, while gold hesitates, silver has charted an independent rally, sharply reaching a historic high. This divergence is no coincidence; it reveals the current different core narratives for the two assets. Gold’s attributes are more financial and monetary, highly sensitive to changes in real interest rates and dollar confidence; whereas silver combines financial attributes with strong industrial demand. After being added to the U.S. critical mineral list, silver’s prospects in new energy, electronics, and other fields provide solid value support. Tastylive Global Macro Head Ilya Spivak noted: “Silver has basically ignored external factors and has been rising on its own.” This independence is especially valuable in uncertain macro environments.

Core Logic Comparison of Gold-Silver Divergence

Recent Gold Performance: From a historical high of $4,336, down about 6%, currently at $4,210.72, still up nearly 75% year-to-date. Its logic is dominated by financial attributes, sensitive to real interest rates, the dollar index, central bank gold purchases, and risk sentiment.

Institutional Long-term Forecasts: Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by 2026; UBS sees $5,000 by 2026/2027.

Recent Silver Performance: Reached a historic high of $62.88 on December 11, currently at $61.77, with a 113% increase this year. Its logic is driven by both industrial and financial factors, benefiting from strong industrial demand, inventory declines, and a revival in investment appeal, making it more resilient to macro fluctuations.

Short-term Market Focus: The next key technical resistance is at $64.

Long-term Narrative Analysis: Why Does Goldman Sachs Maintain an Optimistic View of Gold at $4,900?

Despite short-term volatility, major international banks like Goldman Sachs firmly believe in a long-term gold bull market. Goldman analyst Lina Thomas recently set a target price of $4,900 by the end of 2026, implying over 20% upside from current levels. This optimistic forecast is supported by two seemingly simple yet resilient main drivers: ongoing central bank gold purchases and private investors’ asset diversification.

Central bank gold buying has become a structural trend since 2022. The logic behind it extends beyond traditional reserve diversification to strategic accumulation amid rising geopolitical uncertainties, de-dollarization efforts, and non-sovereign credit assets. Goldman Sachs points out that this fundamental rationale remains unchanged, with data indicating accelerated central bank gold purchases even in September. Backed by national credit, this buying power provides a stable, substantial " ballast" for the gold market.

Meanwhile, private investor demand is equally vital. Since the start of the year, inflows into gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares have exceeded $41 billion. Although there was a modest outflow of about $1.2 billion in the past month, Goldman regards this as normal profit-taking and technical correction within a bull market, not a trend reversal. Thomas expects ETF investors and high-net-worth individuals purchasing physical gold bars to remain net buyers. She emphasizes that if the theme of “private investor diversification” gains more attention, gold prices could have “significant upside.”

Technical Perspective: Key Support and Upward Targets for Gold

From a purely technical analysis perspective, gold’s overall bullish structure remains intact after retracing from its all-time high. The price has successfully reclaimed the 10-day moving average (around $4,206) and is supported near an upward trendline, indicating renewed buying momentum.

For traders, several key technical levels outline a clear roadmap. On the upside, initial resistance is at last week’s high of $4,264. Breaking and holding above this level would confirm a return of bullish momentum and open space toward $4,356 (a key measured move target) and possibly the previous high of $4,381. Goldman Sachs’ long-term target of $4,900 points further ahead.

On the downside, the 20-day moving average (around $4,154) is the immediate support for bulls. As long as prices stay above this, the bull trend remains valid. Should an unexpected sell-off push prices below it, the next significant support is at the 50-day moving average (about $4,097), which has not been tested since breaking above in August. This moving average is expected to provide strong support. Technical analysis suggests that as long as gold remains above the 50-day moving average, recent corrections are healthy technical adjustments, preparing for the next upward move.

Implications for Cryptocurrencies: Traditional Safe-Haven Logic and Assets in the Digital Age

The divergence between gold and silver in the current macro environment offers valuable insights for cryptocurrency investors. First, it confirms a core principle: when liquidity expectations shift complexly (e.g., “hawkish rate cuts”), assets relying on a single macro narrative (like rate cuts) will face greater volatility and uncertainty. Gold’s hesitation partly stems from this. For Bitcoin, often viewed as a “hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation,” this is a crucial reminder—its price drivers must be diversified and not overly dependent on rate expectations.

Second, silver’s strength highlights the importance of “actual demand” and “distinct narratives” in asset valuation. Silver’s industrial uses and strategic status provide independent support beyond monetary policy. This is similar to certain crypto assets (like Ethereum) whose value logic is built on their smart contract platforms and ecosystem applications, allowing them to decouple from Bitcoin’s price cycles at certain stages. Assets with solid fundamentals and unique use cases tend to exhibit greater resilience.

Finally, Goldman Sachs’ long-term bullish logic on gold—central bank and private investor structural demand—also resonates with the long-term narrative of cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin). Often called “digital gold,” Bitcoin’s core narrative as a store of value for individuals and sovereigns echoes this. Observing how traditional institutions understand and implement gold allocation can help us anticipate the path and pace of future institutional inflows into crypto.

Conclusion

The “stress test” in gold and silver is more than a sector rotation within the precious metals market. It is a vivid lesson: at the crossroads of macro policy ambiguity and divided market consensus, different assets react sharply based on their most core and unique value anchors. Gold, in its monetary attribute world, temporarily falters, awaiting clearer policy signals; silver, driven by industrial demand and real-world applications, forges ahead.

For crypto market observers, this lesson underscores the complexity of asset pricing. Whether it’s Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other tokens, their long-term prices are unlikely to be driven solely by Fed rate decisions. They must demonstrate their unique, irreplaceable value, social consensus, or network effects—just as silver proves its industrial utility and gold proves its ultimate credit. When tides (liquidity) become unpredictable, only assets with strong “self-gravity” can stand firm, even reverse the current. Today’s precious metals market may well be a mirror for the cryptocurrencies of tomorrow.