Bridgewater's 2025 Strategic Shift: Long-term Gold "Believers" Offload Holdings, Reassessing Risk Appetite Amid "Macro Turning Point"?

Selling over 2 billion USD in tech giants, clearing gold and emerging markets exposure, and increasing positions in U.S. large caps and select tech stocks.

Written by: DaiDai, MSX Maidian

I. New Macro Paradigm: Investment Logic in an Era of Uncertainty

1. Introduction: Navigating an Unpredictable Future

The global macroeconomy is undergoing a profound structural shift. Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, points out that two core drivers—the acceleration of “Modern Mercantilism” and the “Artificial Intelligence Revolution”—are reshaping market dynamics. The interaction of these paradigm shifts has created a new environment filled with “unpredictable tail events.” This context poses serious challenges to traditional investment strategies and makes strategic portfolio adjustments and adaptation to the future an urgent priority.

2. Analysis of Core Drivers

Based on Bob Prince’s discussion, the characteristics and impacts of these two macro forces are as follows:

(1) Acceleration of Modern Mercantilism

The core feature of “Modern Mercantilism” is that governments play an increasingly important role in enhancing national wealth and strength, prioritizing self-sufficiency and industrial policies. This trend leads to growing complexity in global geopolitics and macroeconomic environments. Interactions between countries are no longer limited to economic considerations but include more strategic factors.

(2) Exponential Demand of the Artificial Intelligence Revolution

The development of AI technology faces a fundamental contradiction: marginal performance improvements require “exponential growth” in computing power and capital investment. This dynamic not only creates unprecedented demand for related industries such as semiconductors, software, and energy but also signifies that massive capital expenditure will be a key variable driving market growth and divergence.

3. Bridgewater’s Response Principles

In the face of this new macro paradigm filled with uncertainty, Prince distilled three core principles guiding Bridgewater’s current investment decisions:

(1) Diversification

In a market environment, especially with U.S. stocks reaching historically high concentration levels, diversification is the only reliable response to unpredictability. Its goal is to ensure that no matter what unforeseen events occur, the portfolio will not suffer severe damage.

(2) Agility

As unknown macro factors become clearer (“as the unknown becomes known”), investment strategies must be able to adapt and adjust quickly. Agility means proactively responding to new information and changing patterns rather than sticking to old judgments.

(3) Healthy Degree of Paranoia

In markets full of uncertainty, maintaining vigilance and avoiding overconfidence is crucial. This entails holding a healthy skepticism toward market expectations, especially those that seem overly optimistic or linearly extrapolated.

Based on this macro outlook, Bridgewater has made profound strategic adjustments to its portfolio to better navigate future risks and opportunities.

II. Major Portfolio Shift: Strategic Reorientation in Q3 2025

1. Introduction: Data-Driven Strategic Intent

The 13F filing for Q3 2025 (as of September 30, 2025) reveals a decisive rotation in Bridgewater’s portfolio. Data shows that Bridgewater is shifting from a defensive stance of recent years to a more active “seeking returns” posture.

2. Major Reductions and Cleansings: Avoiding Concentration Risks

According to data from Gainify, Moomoo, and Fintel, Bridgewater executed large-scale reductions and liquidations in Q3 to reduce concentration risk.

(1) Significant Cut in “Big Seven Tech Giants”

Bridgewater sharply reduced exposure to certain tech giants, removing over $2 billion in total positions, including:

NVIDIA (NVDA): Reduced by 65.28%, approximately 4.64 million shares, ending holdings at about 2.47 million shares, with a market value of around $298 million. (Note: This was one of the largest single reductions this quarter, indicating concerns about short-term crowdedness in chip stocks.))

Microsoft (MSFT): Reduced by 36.03%, about 330,000 shares, ending at approximately 586,000 shares, with a market value of about $252 million.

Alphabet (GOOGL): Reduced by 52.61%, about 2.32 million shares, ending at approximately 2.09 million shares, with a market value of about $346 million.

Meta Platforms (META): Reduced by 48.34%, about 310,000 shares, ending at approximately 330,000 shares, with a market value of about $189 million.

This move indicates that after significant gains and valuation increases in these giants, Bridgewater chose to proactively reduce its concentration in crowded trades.

(2) Complete Exit from “Gold” and “Emerging Markets”

The most notable action is Bridgewater’s full liquidation of its SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) position, signaling a move away from traditional macro hedging tools. Simultaneously, the fund nearly completely exited emerging markets, reducing its iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) holdings by 93%. These actions send a strong signal: capital is withdrawing from defensive and high-uncertainty sectors toward markets with clearer fundamentals.

3. Core Additions and Positioning: Increasing Exposure to U.S. Market Breadth and Select Tech Value Chains

While reducing positions significantly, Bridgewater redeployed funds into the U.S. market and specific tech sectors, reflecting an optimistic risk-reward assessment.

(1) Increasing U.S. Large-Cap ETF Positions

Bridgewater invested heavily in the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), significantly boosting its weight.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): Added about 1.74 million shares (+75%), ending with a total of 4.05 million shares, with a market value of approximately $2.71 billion.

Note: IVV and SPY have become structural pillars of its portfolio. The over $1.1 billion capital injection reflects a renewed focus on U.S. market breadth.

(2) Strategic Positioning in Specific Tech Sectors

Unlike the reduction in high-valuation tech giants, Bridgewater significantly increased or newly established positions in tech companies with clear long-term fundamentals and relatively reasonable valuations, mainly in software, payments, and semiconductor supply chains:

Lam Research (LRCX): Increased by about 1.83 million shares (+111%, doubling the position), ending at approximately 3.46 million shares, with a market value of about $464 million.

Adobe (ADBE): Increased by about 533,000 shares (+73%), ending at approximately 1.26 million shares, with a market value of about $445 million.

Workday (WDAY): Increased by +132%, ending at about 1.04 million shares, with a market value of about $251 million.

Mastercard (MA): Increased by +190%, ending at about 366,000 shares, with a market value of about $208 million.

This indicates that Bridgewater has not abandoned tech stocks but shifted capital from sentiment-driven giants toward semiconductor equipment and enterprise software companies playing a role as “market makers” in the AI revolution.

(3) Focus on Newly Listed Companies

Bridgewater also established new positions in recently listed platform companies, demonstrating ongoing exploration of new growth points:

Reddit (RDDT): New position, about 617,000 shares purchased, with a market value of approximately $142 million.

Robinhood (HOOD): New position, about 808,000 shares purchased, with a market value of approximately $98 million.

III. Decoding the Gold Mystery: The Battle Between Long-Term Faith and Tactical Adjustment

1. Introduction: The Apparent Paradox Behind the Decision

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, has long been a staunch supporter of gold. However, in Q3 2025, Bridgewater completely liquidated its gold ETF holdings. This “seemingly contradictory” decision is not a negation of long-term faith but more likely a tactical adjustment based on current conditions.

2. Dalio’s Philosophy on Gold

Based on information from TradingKey and Motley Fool, Dalio’s gold investment philosophy is rooted in his understanding of macro cycles.

(1) Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset

Dalio believes gold is a key hedge against currency devaluation and declining institutional trust, and the only asset that does not rely on counterparty promises.

(2) Strategic Allocation Advice

He has recommended at the Greenwich Economic Forum that during periods of increased market stress, gold allocation should be increased to 10–15%, and explicitly stated that zero or low gold allocation is a “strategic mistake.”

3. Tactical Exit: Logical Reasoning

Combining analysis from Gainify, the logic behind Bridgewater’s liquidation of gold can be understood through its risk appetite shift.

(1) Shift in Risk Preference

Exiting gold exposure signals a move from defensive store-of-value assets to more active equity deployment.

(2) Marginal Change in Hedge Value

In the current environment, Bridgewater may believe that zero-yield gold’s hedging value no longer sufficiently offsets opportunity costs, while U.S. stocks and selected tech sectors offer better risk-reward ratios.

IV. Future Outlook: Seeking Balance Amid Uncertainty

1. Introduction: A New Balance Under the New Macro Paradigm

Bridgewater’s 2025 strategy is not simply bullish or bearish but involves constructing a more resilient portfolio to adapt to macro turning points, acknowledging the unpredictability.

2. Internal Logic of the Strategy

(1) Using Breadth Instead of Traditional Hedging

Increasing holdings in the S&P 500 ETF is not only a bullish stance on the U.S. market but also a way to diversify risk through market breadth, replacing single assets like gold.

(2) Maintaining Agility in Change

In the AI wave, Bridgewater chooses fundamentally clearer and reasonably valued tech stocks to respond to the dynamic process of “unknown becoming known.”

(3) Upholding the “All Weather” Philosophy

The current adjustments are a dynamic practice of Bridgewater’s “All Weather” approach under the new macro paradigm, aiming to maintain portfolio balance across different scenarios rather than sacrificing upside potential for single defensive positions.

In summary, Bridgewater’s 2025 investment strategy is an active evolution: abandoning old balance anchors amid uncertainty, and building new resilience through broader diversification and sharper agility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice.